In the end, these elections are looking straightforward. Wherever you turn your attention Reform are surging. For instance, I just heard this morning from colleagues in Scottish Labour that Reform votes are ‘piling up’ in West Lothian. If they fall short in Scotland it will be because of a category error in their campaigning. Reform are ultimately one of four parties – in addition to Labour, Lib Dems and the Tories – splitting the unionist support, while the SNP reap the first past the post (FPTP) premium for being the only separatist party standing.

What matters in a fragmented landscape is how you can articulate and dominate a particular electoral bloc

What matters in a fragmented landscape is how you can articulate and dominate a particular electoral bloc

None of this is to take away from the scale of Reform’s victories. They are sweeping up seats and councils across England. They have won their first borough in London: Havering. They have gained counties like Essex. They are running neck and neck with Plaid Cymru in the Welsh Senedd where Labour look to be reduced to single figures in a country they have dominated for over a........

© The Spectator