This has been the week that a deep sense of pessimism about the upcoming midterm elections set in among Republicans around the country. Not just the political class of consultants and others intimately involved in campaigns — they have been pessimistic for a while, although their sense of foreboding seemed to rise to a higher level in recent days — but also among those who follow the news closely but don’t get down into the weeds of the race for control of the House and Senate.

They were rattled by headlines like this, from the Cook Political Report: “GOP on Track to Lose House Majority as 15 Race Ratings Shift Toward Dems.” They were unnerved by troubling assessments from conservative commentators. They were worried by reports from well-connected observers. They were vexed by stubbornly high prices for fuel and food.

A lot of the elevated sense of pessimism is related to President Donald Trump’s job approval rating. It seems that every few days there is a new poll showing Trump’s number sinking a bit lower; the most recent was a Wall Street Journal survey that pegged the president’s job approval at 37%. The other most recent polls in the RealClearPolitics average were at 44%, 39%, 35%, 41%, 43%, 36%, 35%, 40%, 33% — you get the idea. The RCP average is 38.7%, which is terrible for a president leading his party into midterm........

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