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Budget: The Real Questions

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16.06.2026

Asif MahmoodIn our context, budgets are usually seen through two familiar lenses. One is to view them as a supporter of the government, and the other is to view them as an opponent. In the first case, every budget is declared excellent; in the second, every budget is labelled oppressive. What is needed is to move beyond political bias and look at the budget simply as Pakistanis. When we do that, a number of basic and important questions begin to emerge. Unless these questions are addressed, any discussion on the budget remains incomplete.The first question is this: we are an agricultural country, but can we really improve our economy and produce a meaningful budget without making agriculture our top priority? Agriculture is not just a sector; it is an entire economic system. It includes not only the food basket but also a complete agro industrial structure. If we fail to focus on it, if we cannot industrialise our agricultural potential, and if we end up importing wheat and sugar while spending valuable foreign exchange on it, then how can a sound budget ever be expected?The second question concerns industrialisation. We are not able to industrialise effectively. Industry is shrinking. Electricity has become expensive, and we are producing very little that can be exported to earn foreign exchange. In reality, we are becoming a consumer market that buys from abroad and keeps losing dollars in the process. Can a country that functions primarily as a consumer economy present a strong budget? Where industrialisation does not exist, how realistic is it to expect a healthy fiscal framework?What are our exports? What is our policy direction? What are our targets? Dollars cannot be earned without exports. Do we intend to rely only on remittances from overseas Pakistanis and foreign loans, or are we willing to learn how to earn through exports? Without a coherent export strategy, how can a strong budget be prepared? A shortage of dollars makes a strong budget impossible.The third question relates to pre budget consultation. A budget is not simply the arrangement of figures to complete a financial year. It is a comprehensive policy exercise linked to risks, possibilities and expectations. The question is whether any meaningful dialogue takes place before the budget with stakeholders and economic experts at any level.At the same time, is there any serious discussion about how the Iran–US conflict may be affecting different sectors of our economy, what challenges it is creating, how we can manage losses, and what alternatives exist? From chambers of commerce to media and parliament, is there any substantive debate on what this conflict means for Pakistan economically, and what opportunities may emerge if peace prevails? And are we prepared to benefit from those opportunities?It must be remembered that the economy is not driven by government alone. The private sector plays a central role. Are our investors and traders prepared to........

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