The Southern Caribbean Energy Matrix in the Post-Iran War Era

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The Iran War is accelerating the Southern Caribbean’s rise as a lower-risk energy hub with growing geopolitical and economic importance.

The Iran War is a reminder that oil still matters. The effect of the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz and damage to the Persian Gulf’s energy/petrochemical/fertilizer matrix will linger for years on the global economy. Moreover, any peace settlement is likely to be fragile. 

One region benefiting from the Iran War is the Southern Caribbean Energy Matrix, comprising Guyana, Suriname, and Trinidad and Tobago. In the post-Iran War era, the Southern Caribbean Energy Matrix will become more important in global geo-economics and will command greater attention from policymakers in China, the United States, India, and Europe. It also raises questions over Venezuela’s relationship with its Caribbean neighbors. 

What is happening in the Persian Gulf can have a transformative effect in the Caribbean, especially if those countries are willing to take up the challenge of redesigning the regional economy. 

Southern Caribbean Oil and LNG Growth 

The Southern Caribbean is emerging as a major oil-producing region. Guyana is one of the world’s newest petro-states. Oil was discovered in 2015 by a consortium of ExxonMobil, Hess (now Chevron), and China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), with pumping starting in 2019. Next door in Suriname, TotalEnergies and Apache Corporation discovered significant offshore oil reserves in 2020 and are now investing $10.5 billion to eventually begin pumping it in 2030. 

Although Trinidad and Tobago’s oil industry is in decline, the two-island state is the third-largest liquefied natural gas (LNG) exporter in the Americas, behind the US and Canada, and just ahead of Bolivia. The development of the Dragon field, a joint venture between Trinidad and Tobago, Shell, and Venezuela’s PDVSA, will restore the twin islands’ LNG business and petrochemical facilities. Trinidad also has a shuttered oil refinery that could be tapped to support the development of Guyana’s and Suriname’s energy sectors. 

Guyana, a country of a little under 1 million people, has undergone a significant transformation from one of the poorest countries in the Western Hemisphere to a new petrostate. The Caribbean country has undergone a rapid transition from being what the World Bank calls a low-income economy to an upper-middle-income economy. This transformation was driven by ExxonMobil’s oil discoveries, the shift to oil production and export, and the tapping of petrodollars for a country remake. Today, Guyana is closing in on producing 1 million barrels per day (BPD), which puts it in the same production zip code as Venezuela. Guyana is expected to produce 1.7 million BDC by 2030, putting it close to Mexico’s production. Indeed, Guyana’s importance as an oil producer may surpass Mexico’s due to the latter country’s declining output, the massive debt of its state-owned oil company, Pemex, and underinvestment. Moreover, part of Mexico’s production goes to meet domestic demand; Guyana’s is overwhelmingly for export. 

Trump’s Foreign Policy Toward the Caribbean 

The fast-changing nature of global geopolitics is elevating the Southern Caribbean on the global energy-producing map. Several developments are behind this, including the election of Donald Trump as President in the United States and the change in energy policies contingent on that, the related capture of Venezuela’s corrupt and economically maladroit President Nicolás Maduro in early 2026, and the Iran War. 

President Trump’s return to the White House came with a change in foreign policy from the Biden administration. The Trump administration’s National Security Strategy (NSS) broadly outlines the “America First” approach to the rest of the world, equating economic security with national security. The message is clear—the US approach to the world is being overhauled, shifting from being the global gendarme to a more nuanced Fortress America policy framework, driven by a........

© The National Interest