What is the Donald Trump administration’s plan for Venezuela? Secretary of State Marco Rubio partially answered this question January 8 by saying the United States has a “three-fold process” for the country that involves “stabilization” (preventing chaos and a resurgence in violence), “recovery” (ensuring Western companies have access to oil and enabling reconciliation between the regime and opposition forces), and “transition” (a term the secretary did not define).

While a welcome update, Rubio’s remarks did not clarify the White House’s end goal in Venezuela. What does success look like at the end of the third (transition) step? What is Venezuela transitioning toward?  

The Atlantic Council’s data and research (informed by over 100,000 data points spanning 164 countries and nearly 30 years) clearly shows that the US-endgame in Venezuela should be democracy. Political, economic, and religious freedom—and the institutions that enable them—constitute the environment best suited to produce a sustainable financial return for America and the Venezuelan people. These elements of democracy are also the best bet to mitigate the same threats—instability, migration, and rampant drug flows—that President Trump used military might to address in the first place. 

Data from the Freedom and Prosperity Indexes show a strong correlation between tumbling political freedom and declining prosperity in Venezuela. Since 1995, only Nicaragua has experienced a greater decline in political freedom than Venezuela, and Venezuela is one of just three countries with prosperity levels lower now than in 1995.  

Notably, the most dramatic declines in key indicators of political freedom have occurred since Nicolas Maduro took office in 2013. Civil rights and political liberties have been degraded under his regime, and electoral integrity in the country is at its lowest point in the three decades that we........

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