A US F-35 fighter jet takes off. F-35 fighter jets may be used in a US strike on Iran ( Shutterstock/Gece333).

Escalating tensions between Washington and Tehran appear to have momentarily given way to a flurry of diplomatic activity aimed at staving off war. Envoys and officials from both sides, as well as other regional actors, have been shuttling back and forth between various capitals to find a path forward. 

The outcome came on February 6, with indirect talks in Oman, which President Donald Trump described as “a very good” encounter and Iran’s president said was a “step forward,” with further meetings expected. The very fact that discussions are underway suggests that neither capital believes confrontation is inevitable. Yet the parallel movement of US naval assets into the Persian Gulf—what Trump has called his “beautiful armada”—tells a different story.

Whether this mobilization is a prelude to war or a calculated effort to rattle Iran into concessions is difficult to know for sure. With Trump, intention is often a moving target. The same gesture can be a threat, a bargaining chip, or an impulse, sometimes all at once. His foreign policy rarely follows a linear logic; it is often improvised and shaped by whoever last had the president’s ear. Still, the absence of a clear strategy does not mean there is no structure. Outcomes can still be determined by the push and pull of powerful currents—domestic, regional, and personal—that steer the United States toward conflict or restrain it.

The pro-war camp in Washington is loud and well-organized. Iranian expatriates who dream of regime change, and in some cases a restored monarchy, have found new energy in the Trump era. They are joined by the familiar alliance of neoconservatives, Israeli lobbyists, and congressional hawks—senators like Lindsey Graham (R-SC), Ted Cruz (R-TX), and Tom Cotton (R-AR)—who view Iran as the final obstacle to an American-Israeli order in the Middle East. 

Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu enjoys unfettered access to the president (he visited him........

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