Why America Needs a Domestic Nuclear Fuel Strategy Now

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With continued governmental support, the US can make the nuclear industry a resilient and predictable foundation for an electrified grid that the country needs for economic competitiveness and national security.

In 2026, the global economy once again faces an energy security crisis due to disruptions in the Middle East. It was only four years ago that the term “energy security” was back in vogue, following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Like in the 1970s, oil and gas and associated infrastructure are being used as geopolitical weapons. Despite increases in domestic production and global energy intensity improvements, the entrenchment of oil and gas as the foundation of US and global economic activity leaves goods ranging from airline tickets to fertilizers vulnerable to further price spikes. Economic and political ripples of the current conflict will be felt for months, if not longer. Commodity transportation and production remain reliant on a few key players and locations where pain points are increasingly acute. 

As the world economy looks for solutions, the nuclear industry might have an opportunity to become a stabilizing force. Although not new, nuclear energy is experiencing a political and technological renaissance, with broad international support and pledges for rapid expansion. With opportunities for synergies between the booming artificial intelligence (AI) and energy-intensive industrial sectors and the nuclear power industry, there is a potential scenario in which nuclear energy, not oil and gas, will underpin the digital and industrial economy in the mid- to long-term (2035-2050; post-2050).  

Can the US nuclear energy industry expand upon the important role it currently serves in providing resilient, domestic, clean baseload power, or is it destined to replicate similar geopolitical and economic vulnerabilities that the fossil fuel-dependent global economy is experiencing today?

We are in an era when energy security is national security and where energy availability is the foundation of economic competitiveness. Moreover, AI is the next great societal leap—that leap will be about AI, but it will also be about the energy needed to support AI platforms. While concerns are already being voiced about global leaders and laggards as AI races forward, being left behind will not just be about the AI itself—it will be about having the energy to enable AI. If the United States considers the broader nuclear industry an essential national security and geopolitical tool for the future economy, it will need to prioritize not just advanced technologies, but a robust and reliable fuel supply chain. 

Similarities & Differences in Industry Disruption Risks

The oil and gas industry has a long and complex supply chain involving workers, facilities, and markets around the globe. It begins with a lengthy upstream process comprised of exploration and development of reserves, followed by extraction and production, then a midstream link in the supply chain focused on transport, before reaching the downstream key refining hubs for ultimate distribution to end users via interconnected global trading markets. The supply chain is sophisticated and substitutable, with near-instantaneous pricing adjustments for market disruptions, calculated by numerous benchmarks and well-known fuel categories with similar specifications, all broadly available from competitive vendors. 

Much like oil and gas, the nuclear industry of today is international, with reactor design, financing, construction, and maintenance often involving a diverse set of participants, and an international set of stakeholders involved in nuclear fuel production. Just like fossil-powered facilities, nuclear power plants fundamentally require fuel. And without a stable source of enriched uranium to power the US domestic fleet, the industry is similarly at risk of disruption. 

Is the US Nuclear Fuel Supply Chain Already Vulnerable?

Simply put, yes. There are certain physical and operational characteristics that differentiate the oil and gas and the nuclear industries, but both have vulnerabilities. Nuclear fuel is highly specialized and produced to reactor technology specifications, so unlike hydrocarbon markets, it is hard to substitute, making the market inelastic with relatively slow reaction times and more limited spot market liquidity. Yet, due to its comparatively small size, energy intensity, and infrequent reactor refueling requirements, nuclear fuel can also be purchased years in advance, while also allowing for on-site storage (although not a current practice being utilized to maximum effect). This provides a fundamental price-volatility buffer, allowing US commercial operators to take advantage of any downturns in the spot market and/or to lock in longer-term price contracts to provide greater price and availability certainty.

Unlike the oil and gas industry, where there is an array of allied and adversarial fuel suppliers and both powerful public and private entities, there are a more limited number of actors at play in the nuclear fuel supply chain, many of whom have historically used energy for global economic leverage. For example, more than 99 percent of global enrichment capacity today is held by just four state-owned and state-backed companies: the China National Nuclear Corporation (15........

© The National Interest