The $1.5 Trillion Defense Budget Is the Easy Part

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The Pentagon and its contractors do not want a one-year cash infusion, but a stable budgeting process that meets their needs—something Congress appears unable to give them.

There is a growing consensus in Washington that the United States needs to spend more on defense. A global power in today’s world requires it: Ukraine remains at war, the Indo-Pacific is tense, and now a shooting war with Iran is consuming munitions, platforms, and attention. Against that backdrop, the Trump administration’s call for a $1.5 trillion defense budget sounds not only justified, but overdue.

But there is a problem. The math and politics behind the new budget proposal may not work.

First, the $1.5 trillion did not consider a war with Iran. Second, the only way to reach $1.5 trillion is likely through budget reconciliation. For both of these reasons, the current process makes the entire enterprise fragile, temporary, and potentially illusory.

The $1.5 Trillion Illusion

Start with the baseline. In 2026, the United States will spend roughly $860 billion in baseline and $150 billion in reconciliation on defense—just over $1 trillion in total.  To bridge the gap to $1.5 trillion, there would need to be another $500 billion added to the defense budget. That seems straightforward; in practice, it is anything but.

The first complicating factor is the growing cost of the Iran war. The Pentagon is reportedly considering asking OMB for $200 billion to sustain operations and........

© The National Interest