Airankol oil facility in the Atyrau region, Kazakhstan, circa October 2024. Kazakhstan is the leader in oil exports in the region, partnering with Chevron. Energy security provides political and economic legitimacy to regimes in charge of this area. (Shutterstock/Pavel Mikheyev)

Central Asia’s Growing Oil Divide

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Governments in Central Asia need steady access to oil to maintain their political allies and prevent revolution. Kazakhstan may have achieved an edge over its neighbors by attracting energy investors.

Central Asia’s oil producers are moving in different directions in oil production. Since 1995, Kazakhstan’s oil production has increased, while neighboring Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan have faced decades of declining oil production. Both countries have entered what can be described as terminal decline, the stage at which oil production, after reaching its peak, enters a sustained, long-term decline unlikely to be reversed to peak production levels. Oil revenues have long provided governments in the region with resources to finance public spending, distribute benefits to political elites, and maintain political stability. Although Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan increasingly depend on alternative sources of income, particularly natural gas, the decline in oil production removes an important source of state revenue and makes long-term regime........

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