View of the control panel at Kursk nuclear power plant in Kurchatov, Russia, circa June 2015. Rosatom’s ability to maintain Russian-designed reactors abroad is an important energy security concern as the war in Ukraine strains Russia’s industrial base. (Shutterstock/Vladimir Mulder)

A Rosatom Maintenance Shock Could Be Coming. Here’s How the West Can Prepare

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Rosatom’s maintenance network may prove more vulnerable than its reactor technology, creating an overlooked energy security challenge for VVER operators worldwide.

Ukraine’s long-range drone strikes have demonstrated that strategic industrial infrastructure deep inside Russia is vulnerable to destruction and disruption. The prime example is Russia’s oil sector, which has been repeatedly targeted. Although Russia’s oil sector has not collapsed, the repairs, rerouting and replacement efforts to mitigate the damage consume scarce resources, including money, equipment and skilled labor. This raises the question whether the same wartime pressures—sanctions, financial isolation, transport constraints, industrial damage and competition for skilled engineers—could gradually weaken Rosatom’s ability to service the 44 Soviet-designed VVER reactors operating abroad as well as the 22 reactors under construction.

There is no public evidence that Ukraine is targeting Rosatom’s reactors, fuel plants, spent-fuel stores or other facilities whose destruction could release radioactive material must remain an absolute red line. However, Rosatom depends on the wider Russian industrial economy for electrical equipment, control systems, specialized metals, pumps, valves, logistics, finance and experienced personnel. Thus, if those supporting systems become degraded or less reliable, Rosatom’s maintenance capabilities may well become significantly diminished. 

Rosatom’s Risk Is Erosion, Not Collapse

Rosatom remains a formidable organization with deep scientific expertise, substantial domestic production and access to suppliers in countries outside Western sanctions.  It has shown remarkable resilience navigating sanctions, financing constraints, scheduling delays and international competition to maintain its maintenance portfolio. It continues to serve as a key source of nuclear fuel and enriched uranium for........

© The National Interest