Tension in the Middle East is at its peak as the US is amassing an unprecedented number of forces around Iran for a possible strike. Preparations are to such an extent that even if the US is unable to use its military bases in the Middle East, it should be able to conduct a sustained aerial campaign from the sea and bases in Europe. Besides many advanced fighter aircraft, including F22 Raptors, tankers and Airborne Early Warning and Control aircraft (AEW&C), have been moved towards these bases. Two aircraft carrier groups, one south of Iran in the Arabian Sea and the other east of the Mediterranean Sea, have been stationed to open a two-front war if required. Air defences at bases in the Middle East have also been beefed up. On the other hand, Iran is also flexing its muscles, particularly at sea. A few days back, it held a live weapons firing drill in the Strait of Hormuz, closed the Strait for some time and is currently holding a joint exercise with the Russian Navy in the Gulf of Oman. There have been reports of several Chinese and Russian transport aircraft arriving in Iran. Although it is not clearly known what they brought, it is being speculated that support for beefing up Iran’s depleted air defences might have been provided.

On the diplomatic front, conflicting statements from the American leadership have added fog to the situation. Initially, a deadline of one month was set for Iran on 13 February 2026 for the conclusion of a deal, subject to Iran’s response within two weeks. Lately, during the Board of Peace inaugural session on 19 February 2026, it was reduced to 10 days. Simultaneously, there have been positive statements from both sides on the usefulness of the two rounds of negotiations that have been held between the US and Iran. But President Trump has also opined that a deal with Iran is difficult to achieve, despite his repeated statements that Iran is willing to conclude a deal. This perplexing stance has sent mixed signals, putting the world in flux. On 18 February 2026, oil prices took a dip in anticipation of impending conflict, while the next day they rose. There has been a rise in gold prices against the backdrop of the situation in the Middle East. Germany has pulled out its troops stationed in Iraq for training purposes, while Poland has issued an advisory to its citizens to leave Iran. There are reports that while countries in the Middle East are trying to seek a diplomatic solution, Israel is trying its best to deny Iran any concessions by the US.

According to some reports, Mr Trump’s security advisers have briefed that a “full force” to strike Iran decisively will be available by mid-March 2026. Until then, there can be limited strikes, to which Iran has vowed to respond with full force. In case the US strikes Iran, there will be considerable damage, as Iran lacks potent air defences and an effective air force. Iran, however, possesses strategic capability at sea, where it can not only target shipping and naval forces but also undertake the closure of the Strait of Hormuz very quickly. This will have jeopardising effects on the world economy, as one fifth of the world’s oil, 22 million barrels, flows through this chokepoint daily. The following events will be more tumultuous, as despite any agreement reached between the US and Iran, it will take months to reopen this important trade route. The greatest sufferers will be Middle Eastern Arab countries whose economies thrive on this chokepoint, and “petrodollar” sales essential for the US economy will ultimately decline. Certainly, the US will continue its strikes to further dominate through decimation; yet whether Iran will strike a deal with the US even after that is not a certainty. Besides the hazards of destruction across the region, it is not in the interest of the US to decimate Iran to a level where it stops radiating threat to regional countries, including Israel. The US maintains its political, economic and military influence in the region on the pretext of saving it from Iran. Just recall the June 2025 war between Israel and Iran. The war was started by Israel while negotiations were going on between the US and Iran and, in the end, the US intervened to save Israel. This is the kind of influence that the US wishes to maintain in the region, and that is only possible when Iran thrives enough to radiate threat to the region collectively.

Now that the US has amassed a large armada around Iran, it seems necessary for President Trump to achieve face-saving with or without an armed conflict. In the case of an armed conflict, the situation is not likely to be as favourable to the US as it desires. In the case of an agreement, which is likely, there will be a win-win situation for all. While Iran can hope for the lifting of sanctions to rescue itself from its dilapidated economic situation, Mr Trump can further strengthen his case for the Nobel Peace Prize without firing a bullet. This seems to be the result that the Americans are aspiring to; yet they also know that Iranians are deft in negotiations, due to which it took the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) two years of talks before it was finally signed. That is specifically what President Trump does not want. He requires a meaningful agreement in the shortest possible time. Whereas the amassing of military assets around Iran and news in the media reflecting hype in the situation seem to be part of pressure tactics, conflicting statements from the US leadership are signs of growing frustration due to the delay Iranian interlocutors are causing in agreeing to US demands. This exasperation is being inferred by the world as a worrisome sign that may hasten an armed conflict, not in the interest of anybody.

Rear Admiral (retd) Faisal ShahThe writer is a freelance and can be reached via faisel68.fs@gmail.com

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