When the world’s metarteriole experiences bleeding, Pakistan bears the associated consequences. Pakistan is enduring the repercussions of a conflict it did not provoke. The incident in the Strait of Hormuz has precipitated an energy crisis that the government is currently inadequately managing.

The unsettling images reveal a story that no senior officials are willing to voice. Over two hundred ships—oil tankers, liquefied natural gas carriers, cargo vessels—are anchored outside the Strait of Hormuz, seemingly stranded. Meanwhile, in Pakistan, citizens wait for hours at petrol stations across various cities, paying 55 rupees more per litre than they did two weeks ago. The government is debating a vague plan to reduce the workweek to four days, halve the fuel allocation for state vehicles, and require schoolchildren to attend classes online. The depicted image is not due to a pandemic but to a narrow 21-mile waterway between Iran and Oman, which has effectively been sealed shut. This is not a crisis in the Middle East, but a crisis affecting us, damaging citizens' daily lives.

On February 28th, 2026, the United States and Israel launched a joint airstrike to de-nuclearise Iran under the name Operation Epic Fury. The strike targeted military facilities, nuclear sites, and leadership, resulting in the death of the leader, Ali Khamenei. Tehran's response was fierce and immediate. Iran launched ballistic missiles and drones at several US military bases and allied nations in the region. Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps declared the Strait closed and threatened to set fire to any vessel attempting to pass. This caused significant disruption to global oil and gas shipments. The world held its breath as the oil market was disrupted.

The US experienced its largest surge since 1983, with crude futures rising 36 per cent in just one week. Meanwhile, Brent crude rose by about 18%, pushing the price to $109 per barrel. Nearly 20 million barrels of oil, worth around $500 billion annually in global energy trade, pass through the Strait of Hormuz. When that vein is damaged or shut, most economies suffer, but some more quickly than others. Pakistan is among the faster ones.

Qatar and the United Arab Emirates together account for 99% of Pakistan’s liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports. Pakistan has limited storage capacity and procurement flexibility, making it highly vulnerable to supply disruptions. Nearly one-fifth of the global oil supply passes through the Strait of Hormuz, which connects the Persian Gulf with the Gulf of Oman. This route is extremely important for Pakistan, as a significant portion of its fuel imports passes through this corridor. Pakistan is facing a serious oil reserves shortage. The government has hurriedly asked Saudi Arabia to reroute crude shipments through the Red Sea ports of Yanbu, which are longer and more expensive. A struggling economy has yet to adapt to this economic shock. Pakistan’s commerce body urged the government to declare an energy crisis to protect itself from this intensified conflict.

The Iranian government has condemned the US-Israel strike as a violation of the UN Charter and announced it will exercise its right to self-defence. Meanwhile, Pakistan, a founding member of the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation, faces a difficult question: where does it truly stand? Islamabad has adopted a confrontational posture publicly, yet behind the scenes, it is appealing to Riyadh for help to avoid the fallout of war. This reveals a stark diplomatic contradiction: publicly taking a hard stance against the Iran war while secretly seeking oil supplies from Riyadh. This isn’t genuine diplomacy but a clear drift.

Overall, Pakistan should declare an energy emergency and implement fair and transparent energy rationing. We need to establish strategic petroleum reserves quickly, as this crisis has shown that Pakistan cannot even survive a two-week supply interruption. Additionally, more investment should be redirected towards renewable energy and domestic gas development. Clearly, the question of whether Pakistan needs energy reforms is now irrelevant; the real issue is that Pakistan cannot afford to delay any longer. Diplomatically, Pakistan must take a clear stance, considering its relationships with Washington and Tehran, its position in the OIC, and its moral authority as a nuclear state, to loudly and urgently push for a ceasefire and a return to negotiations. At this point, the world needs mediators, and Pakistan has the credentials and credibility. What it lacks is willpower.

This Strait of Hormuz shock would ripple far beyond energy markets, tightening financial conditions, fuelling inflation, and plunging fragile economies into a severe recession within a week. Pakistan, already a fragile economy, cannot afford a prolonged crisis. The tankers remain in the Strait of Hormuz, and lines at petrol stations will grow longer. Time is running out. Pakistan didn't start the war, but if we don't act vigilantly and decisively, we may not survive the fallout of the crisis.

Maaz KhanThe writer is a student of MS in development economics at the University of Sussex, England, and can be reached at mk2000@sussex.ac.uk

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