No one won the first phase of the Middle East war, except a narrow waterway. The conflict has now entered its second phase, but the seesaw opening produced only one clear victor: neither steadfast Iran, nor furious America, nor opportunistic Israel. That victor was the Strait of Hormuz.

That single choke point did what neither missiles nor diplomacy could: it changed war strategies, choked the US internationally through diplomatic and political pressure, especially after its allies refused to join in, and forced Washington to the negotiating table. Fear of collapsing economies, disrupted trade, and stalled oil supplies to eager buyers killed any chance of a nuclear strike, even if a desperate Iran had tried to save its prestige at all costs. The latest concern is: what happens if Iran loses the Strait once US minesweepers address underwater challenges? Fortunately, nothing like this seems possible.

The Islamabad talks pulled Pakistan into global geopolitics, a fringe benefit of its image as a regional security stabiliser. The world saw an American leader shake hands with an Iranian leader after over four decades, in the middle of a two-week ceasefire, during a war that resembled a full-dress rehearsal for World War III. The talks produced expected results: a way forward to end the war, while core issues among Israel, the US, and Iran remained unchanged from before and after the JCPOA. The more things change, the more they remain the same. Clearly, the three warring sides and the UN Security Council are back to square one.

Then why this war? Why so much........

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