NEW YORK – Colombia is undergoing one of the most consequential political transitions in its recent history with right-wing President-elect Abelardo de la Espriella succeeding left-wing President Gustavo Petro. Like several other Latin American countries that have shifted to the right, Colombia is likely to face deepening polarization, suggesting that a strong opposition, possibly led by Petro himself, will emerge.

The new administration inherits a mixed economic legacy. On the social front, multidimensional poverty has continued to decline, a trend that dates back to the 1991 constitution and has been supported by sustained growth in social spending. But these gains reflect improved access to education, health care, public utilities and housing, rather than meaningful improvements in income. Meanwhile, the rural-urban gap widened and the health care system faces a deep crisis.

Similarly, while unemployment declined significantly under the Petro administration, much of this improvement appears to be due to an expansion of public-sector employment. Progress could thus be reversed by the necessary fiscal adjustment the new government is expected to undertake. Labor-market informality remains extremely high, affecting nearly........

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