Vladimir Putin long maintained a tacit understanding with the Russian people. They could enjoy stability and relative prosperity in exchange for loyalty and an absence of personal freedoms. In 2022 Putin added a promise to restore national pride through the “special military operation” in Ukraine.

In this fifth summer of the full-scale war, fighting has shifted from the eastern front to an air war that makes civilians on both sides vulnerable to sudden, violent death. Putin’s pact with his people is fraying. Forty per cent of the federal budget is spent on the war. Inflation is high and the economy is on the verge of recession. With a thousand Russian soldiers being killed or wounded daily and Ukrainian attacks deep inside Russia, it has become impossible to ignore the war.

In the spring, Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, expanded what he calls “long-range sanctions” – a drone and missile campaign that has targeted the Russian energy sector, military industry, transport and logistics.

A third of 34 large Russian oil refineries have been hit by Ukrainian drones, disabling 40 per cent of its production capacity according to Ukraine’s army chief, resulting in rationing and long queues for petrol. In retaliation Russia destroyed more than 200 Ukrainian petrol stations this summer.

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Ukraine has targeted at least 15 facilities belonging to Wildberries, the online........

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