HAS the Catholic Church’s first American pope been sufficiently outspoken against America’s war on Iran?

Described as mild-mannered and diplomatic, Pope Leo XIV has been praised for condemning war and praying for peace.

However, he appears to have mentioned the US leader by name only once, when he said he hoped the President was looking for an off-ramp (a motorway slip road) to end the war.

So, should the leader of the world’s 1.4 billion Catholics openly condemn Trump and his support for Israel’s attacks on Iran and Lebanon?

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Or is Vatican diplomacy and restrained language the best way to address what a deranged US administration regards as a holy war against Islam?

The answer appears to be that since Trump neither appreciates nor understands diplomacy, it might be helpful for the pope to use language which Trump – and the American public - understand.

For example, he said that the threat to end Iran’s civilisation was “unacceptable” – hardly the most forceful condemnation.

While a Church leader may not wish to become embroiled in international politics, Trump’s actions are effectively about morality. If the pontiff cannot give moral leadership, who can?

Soviet communist leader Joseph Stalin once asked: “How many divisions does the pope have?” He was saying that the pope has no military might.

Trump cannot adopt that same attitude because, unlike Stalin, he relies heavily on Catholic support at the ballot box.

A Pew Research Center report published in June revealed that 22% (about 17 million) of those who voted for Trump in 2024 were Catholics.

The Republican Party is already expected to lose heavily in the forthcoming mid-term elections. If it were to lose up to one fifth of his electoral support, it would be irrelevant in Congress.

So, if the pope were to stand on his balcony and condemn Trump’s war on Iran as morally wrong and probably criminal, a significant number of US Catholics would presumably not vote Republican in the coming elections.

Trump knows that. A fortnight before his election in 2024, he said “Catholics are treated worse than anybody” and JD Vance, now Vice-President, published a piece in the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette accusing Kamala Harris of “prejudice against Catholics”.

The pope is the only world leader who can hit Trump where it hurts – at the ballot box.

Trump only understands self-interest, so the way to restrain him is to threaten that interest. The pope has more clout than Stalin appreciated.

In naming and shaming Trump, the pope would merely echo some of the US Catholic hierarchy.

Cardinal Robert McElroy of Washington has said the war in Iran is “not morally legitimate” and Cardinal Blase Cupich of Chicago has referred to it as a “profound moral failure”.

In his Easter message last week, however, Pope Leo tended more towards wishful thinking than condemnation: “Let those who have the power to unleash wars choose peace.”

He set a similar tone in his Christmas sermon when he lamented about “the tents in Gaza, exposed for weeks to rain, wind and cold”.

However, he did not directly blame Israel for creating those conditions. Diplomacy can sometimes tend towards denial.

One reason why the pope might not wish to openly attack Trump is that some US Catholics see Trump as their pope. Indeed for some he is even their God.

I know Catholic Americans who have an almost religious faith in Trump.

When I told them that Trump had tried to overturn the result of a democratic election and that his supporters had subsequently stormed the Capitol building, they said that had never happened. It was, they claimed, just fake news.

The pope might have his work cut out with some of his flock.

However, by not directly attacking Trump, Pope Leo risks making the same mistake which Pope Pius XII made with Hitler.

Pius pursued a policy of neutrality, preferring instead to pursue diplomacy and behind-the-scenes humanitarian aid.

He did not explicitly denounce the killing of about six million Jews nor call on the Nazis to stop. In 1998, the Vatican issued an apology, acknowledging its failure to take decisive action to prevent the mass murder of Jews.

Trump has lost the Iran war for now, but there is no knowing what he will do next.

Before he attacks another country (possibly Cuba), the pope might let him know (diplomatically, of course) that if he does, the Vatican will mobilise Catholic electoral support against him.

Such a threat would, of course, be most inappropriate for a pope – but it might stop a second Hitler.

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