MICHEÁL Martin’s government had it coming. People seem to have forgotten the protests by farmers about Mercosur which reached a crescendo in December and January.

Mercosur is the EU-South America trade deal which took over 25 years to negotiate.

It creates one of the world’s biggest free trade areas, between the 27-country EU and the Mercosur bloc of Brazil, Paraguay, Argentina and Uruguay.

Irish farmers are strongly opposed to it, as are farmers in Poland, France, Hungary and Austria.

The main gripe of Irish farmers is that the deal permits 99,000 tons of beef into the EU from South America, which they believe will undercut prices of Irish beef.

Anyway, the point is that the deal went through the EU in January and thousands of tractors blocked roads in the south or engaged in go-slows in protest at ratification.

It was a dry run for what happened last week and, at the time of writing, is still happening in places.

Many farmers, this time supported by hauliers, do not think the government’s €500 million financial package is enough.

The difference is that on the Mercosur deal, the protesters were successful in changing policy.

The Irish government had wanted to support the deal because it’s good for Ireland and also in case they fell into disfavour with the EU Commission.

However, the determining factor in changing the government’s position wasn’t the protests.

It was the rod that Micheál Martin made for his own back: the Independent TDs who provide his majority.

There are 14 Independent TDs, five of whom controversially are in the FFG government.

TDs from Aontú and People Before Profit are in different Independent ‘Technical Groups’ for the purpose of speaking rights.

All through last autumn, Martin was negotiating with the Independents, most notably with Minister Michael Healy-Rae and his brother Danny.

There were rumours in December of the prospect of 10,000 tractors rolling slowly along major routes.

Talks continued beyond Christmas, with the government reluctantly agreeing to oppose the Mercosur deal when it came before the EU in January.

Martin faced the same problem last week, which is one of the reasons for the slow, confused and diffident reaction of his government to the blockades.

That problem was that the Independents he relies on represent predominantly rural constituencies. Managing them is like herding cats.

Michael Healy-Rae was quickly on the airwaves sympathising with the protesters and promising cuts in fuel duty, much to the annoyance of Martin and Simon Harris, who were refusing to talk to protesters or engage with their demands.

Healy-Rae was accused of trying to have his cake and eat it.

The difficulty Martin faces, and it’s one of his own making, is that there is no collective loyalty to his government among the Independents.

There was Healy-Rae, a junior minister in his government, advocating the opposite of what was stated government policy.

Relying on fair weather supporters like the Healy-Raes to get legislation through and pandering to rural protests builds up serious resentment in urban constituencies, which is where the majority of voters live and work.

Already there are signs of a backlash against the farmers in particular.

Vox pop interviews and letter writers to newspapers noted the expensive tractors blocking O’Connell Street, some costing over €200,000, or as one correspondent noted, “not a sign of a beat-up Massey Ferguson or an old Fordson Major”.

Others commented that 90% of Irish agricultural produce is exported and the majority of food consumed in Ireland is imported.

It’s also noted that Irish farming receives €2 billion a year support from the EU.

Now that the Easter holidays are over and schools are back, patience with protesters will quickly evaporate.

All these points were rehearsed yesterday in vituperative terms in the acrimonious confidence motion debate that Sinn Féin tabled.

Of course the government has the numbers to win. Confidence motions always bring government supporters together. After all, members are voting to preserve their own jobs.

However, none of that can disguise the fact that the composition of Micheál Martin’s government is an anomaly.

If last week showed anything, it is that his government majority has an inordinate dependence on an Ireland that no longer exists.

His dependence on rural Independents is a case of the tail wagging the dog.

Ireland’s wealth comes from biopharmaceuticals, computer chips and medical devices, not from butter and beef.

The FFG government does not and cannot represent that modern Ireland as long as declining old rural Ireland has it over a barrel.

The present anomalous arrangement simply displays the unsavoury truth that Martin and Harris will do any dirty deal, pull any stroke, pay any price, to maintain their century-old Fianna Fáil/Fine Gael duopoly.

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© The Irish News