Will the 2026 midterms be a ‘blue wave’? Here’s what to watch as polling ramps up

One of the safe wagers about this year’s midterm elections is that polling of competitive congressional races will be frequent and abundant — and maybe even misleading. After all, the “red wave” of sweeping Republican victories anticipated four years ago turned out to be a very modest “red trickle.” 

While Democrats are favored to win control of the House of Representatives this year, it may be months before clarity emerges about how November’s congressional elections will turn out. Even so, it is none too early to be aware of some realities about election surveys this year, especially as polling already has been conspicuous in unfolding U.S. Senate races in Maine, Michigan, New Hampshire and Georgia. 

Pollsters in 2026 are coming off back-to-back disappointments. In 2024, polls overall understated Republican Donald Trump’s support for the third time in as many presidential elections, despite modifications to survey techniques that sought to avoid such an outcome. In 2025, polls collectively underestimated support for victorious Democrats in gubernatorial campaigns in New Jersey and Virginia — the year’s two most prominent statewide races. 

Of course, past results are no sure indicator of future polling performance, as the recent experience of AtlasIntel makes clear.  

A Brazil-based company, AtlasIntel was the most accurate pollster in the U.S. presidential race in 2024, correctly projecting Trump would win the national popular vote as well as carry the seven swing states where the Electoral College outcome turned. No other pollster was so successful. In 2025, however, AtlasIntel signaled a far closer race for governor in New Jersey than what transpired. Its final preelection poll reported that........

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