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Trump faces economic risks at SOTU

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25.02.2026

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Trump faces economic risks at SOTU

Trump’s moves risk GOP’s working class support

President Trump is heading into his State of the Union on Tuesday with dismal approval ratings that show a reversal of 2024 gains among independents, young voters and Latinos.

Though working class voters are the cornerstone of Trump’s base, enduring concerns about the economy and cost-of-living issues could signal trouble for Republicans heading into this fall’s high-stakes midterms. 

“The Republicans in general have given up ground, they’re no longer nine or 10-point favorites to handle the economy,” said Scott Tranter, director of data science for Decision Desk HQ. “People are most worried about the economy and affordability. That generally doesn’t bode well for the party in power.”

“How does that translate to the working class?” he added. “Look, if the general voter has a problem with [being] worried about keeping their job or paying for that vacation, that mostly hurts the working class vote. And we’ll see how that plays out.”

Trump’s overall approval rating was roughly 15 points underwater ahead of his first State of the Union of his second term, according to DDHQ’s polling aggregate — about the biggest gulf he’s logged since returning to the Oval Office. Approximately 42 percent approve of his presidency, while 56 percent disapprove. 

Welcome to The Hill’s Business & Economy newsletter, I’m Sylvan Lane — covering the intersection of Wall Street and Pennsylvania Avenue.

Did someone forward you this newsletter? Subscribe here.

Key business and economic news with implications this week and beyond:

Small businesses that challenged Trump’s tariffs begin refund push

Fresh off their Supreme Court victory, a group of small businesses that challenged President Trump’s global tariffs formally commenced their refund push on Tuesday. 

Pentagon threatens to cancel Anthropic contract by Friday if company doesn’t lift safeguards

The Pentagon has threatened to cancel Anthropic’s contract by Friday if the company does not agree to the department’s terms for the use of its AI model, sources confirmed to The Hill on Tuesday. 

New British ambassador dishes on Trump’s ‘genius,’ post-Mandelson vetting and Chagos tensions

Just hours after former U.K. ambassador to the U.S. Peter Mandelson was arrested in London on Monday on suspicion of leaking government secrets to Jeffrey Epstein, his successor was feted at a welcoming party in Washington, D.C.

Join Sen. Patty Murray (D-Wash.), Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-Iowa) and top strategists on March 4 to spotlight the women driving the 119th Congress. From AI to the economy, meet the women navigating the new political map. Register here.

Branch out with more stories from the day:

Your holiday gift returns might go to a landfill. Here’s what you can do about it

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You’re all caught up. See you tomorrow! 

Copyright 2026 Nexstar Media Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.

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