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Susan Collins leads Troy Jackson in new Maine Senate polling despite report on FBI investigation

Susan Collins leads Troy Jackson in new Maine Senate polling despite report on FBI investigation

▪ Senate battleground map expands

▪ Trump, Xi exchange gifts

▪ Journalists allowed back in White House

▪ Mortgage, bond market concerns

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The Senate map appears to be widening, with more states in play for both parties just a little more than five weeks out from the midterms.

The nonpartisan election handicapper Cook Political Report this week shifted two GOP strongholds in Democrats’ direction, moving Kansas from “likely Republican” to “lean Republican” and South Carolina from “solid Republican” to “likely Republican.”

Republicans, meanwhile, are liking their chances this year in New Hampshire and Minnesota: Cook Political Report last week shifted New Hampshire toward Republicans, from “lean Democrat” to “toss-up,” and the scant polling in Minnesota points to a highly competitive race, with the latest KSTP/SurveyUSA poll showing the Democratic nominee, Minnesota Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan, and Republican Michele Tafoya tied at 42 percent.

RealClearPolitics also moved three states into the “toss-up” category this past week, shifting New Hampshire and Minnesota toward Republicans, and Kansas toward Democrats.

These states add to a battleground map that includes Maine, Iowa, Alaska, Michigan and Ohio. Georgia and North Carolina are seen as becoming increasingly difficult for Republicans, while Nebraska remains a longshot as independent Dan Osborn looks to knock off Sen. Pete Ricketts (R).

The overall political environment favors Democrats going into November, with President Trump notching record-low approval ratings amid the Iran war and sky-high gas prices, and Democrats holding a double-digit advantage on the generic congressional ballot, according to the latest polls.

But candidate quality is also proving to be a factor as the Senate map widens. In New Hampshire, where Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen is retiring, Republicans convinced former Sen. John E. Sununu (R-N.H.), a member of the state’s popular political dynasty, to run for the Senate against Rep. Chris Pappas (D-N.H.).

Sununu has distanced himself from the president but has nonetheless earned his endorsement, potentially satisfying both MAGA voters and never-Trump Republicans.

“Even in a light blue state, the amount of money national Republicans have dedicated to this race is a flashing red light for Democrats,” Cook Political Report’s Jessica Taylor wrote in an analysis of the race last week.

Candidate quality also seems to be shaping the race in South Carolina, where Sen. Darline Graham (R-S.C.) was tapped this summer to fill her late brother’s seat and is now running for a full term in the upper chamber.

After eking out a win in the GOP special election primary, Graham is still plagued by some of the same challenges, including unsteady debate performances and criticism over being elevated to the job because of her family name. She faces Democratic pediatrician Annie Andrews, who’s been running ads targeting centrist and GOP-leaning voters.

“To be clear, Graham remains the heavy favorite,” Cook wrote of the race. “It’s still incumbent upon Andrews to prove she can get out of the mid-40s polling — always a hurdle in South Carolina — and make this a truly competitive race.”

Meanwhile, in Kansas, Democrats have gone on the attack, seizing on reporting that questions the debt collection lawsuits allegedly filed by Republican Sen. Roger Marshall’s former OB-GYN practice. He also faces a formidable opponent in Methodist pastor Adam Hamilton.

But Democrats also see Kansas as increasingly within reach for economic issues. Agriculture is a major factor in the state, and high fuel and fertilizer prices have squeezed many voters in the state.

“We see this as an increasingly worrisome contest for the GOP that should be called competitive at this juncture, though one where Republicans still have the edge,” Taylor wrote about Kansas in Wednesday’s analysis.

Minnesota has consistently had close races, but a Republican hasn’t won statewide in two decades. But after the progressive lieutenant governor defeated centrist Rep. Angie Craig (D-Minn.) in the Democratic primary, Republicans see cause for optimism.

Minnesota Public Radio reports the race is oddly quiet just weeks out from election day. That may change as polls show Tafoya, a former sports broadcaster, has a fighting chance.

▪ The Hill: Democrats leading in Michigan, New Hampshire Senate races: Survey.

▪ The Hill: Marshall GOP primary challenger backs Democrat in Kansas Senate race.

Smart Take with Blake Burman

Trump honored Chinese leader Xi Jinping at last night’s state dinner, after they........

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