Iran tests US resolve — don’t expect it to back down any time soon

The U.S. has entered a new era of asymmetric warfare with Iran. Today’s ballistic missiles are more accurate. Low-cost attack drones have risen to prominence, and Iran has shown interest in going beyond regional targeting effects. 

In the coming weeks, we can anticipate Iran pursuing more global impacts, striking energy, water, data infrastructure and connectivity, trying to cause economic chaos across continents.

That is a striking change from what the Taliban, Saddam Hussein and ISIS were capable of in the Iraq and Afghan wars of 2001 and 2003.

During the first 12 days of Operation Epic Fury, U.S. installations have been tested like never before, but they have remained resilient. Iran has demonstrated the intent and capability to go after our fielded forces and critical infrastructure to disrupt the ability of the U.S. to project air power. That hasn’t worked. The International Institute for Strategic Studies reported this week that U.S., Israeli, and other regional forces have been able to intercept more than 2,000 attacks from Iranian missiles and drones.

Still, Iran’s attacks have proven formidable. In some cases, drones have slipped through air defenses, sometimes hitting military installations without warning and with lethal results, including 140 wounded and seven killed. Initial attacks by Iran started with military bases, then quickly shifted to softer targets such as embassies and population centers in order to maximize civil disruption. On Sunday, for instance, a drone damaged a water desalination plant in Bahrain — an important source of drinking water for the island nation. 

Among the more concerning attacks, several key air defense systems the U.S. employs have been hit. The TRT Global Network reported that, in the first 100 hours, Iran struck an early radar warning system at Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar with a missile. It also struck the U.S. Navy’s Fifth Fleet headquarters in Bahrain, which destroyed two communication terminals and several large buildings. On March 2, CNN reported that Iran destroyed another radar at Muwaffaq Salti Air Base in Jordan; Iran also claimed to have destroyed a radar in the United Arab Emirates. 

Even more surprising is the addition of data centers in the Middle East as a soft target of choice for Iran, an occurrence that is causing global effects. John Herman reported on March 4 that Amazon issued a statement to its major U.S. military, financial, AI and entertainment clients that regional infrastructure had been struck by drones in United Arab Emirates and Bahrain, affecting connectivity and workflows to banks, rideshare companies and tech firms in the U.S. On March 11, Al Jazeera reported Iran state media affiliated with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps considers infrastructure owned by Microsoft, Google, Palantir, IBM, Nvidia and Oracle legitimate targets. 

Perhaps Iran’s most predictable — and effective — asymmetric attacks have been against oil and gas infrastructure in the region. In the first hundred hours, Iran hit multiple tankers and natural gas plants in the Persian Gulf, as well as a U.S.-operated complex in Iraq that conducted  ogistics and petroleum services. According to reports, Iran has also attacked refineries in Kuwait and Saudi Arabia, the King Salman Port in Bahrain, and the Fujairah Oil Industry Zone in Oman. On March 11, The Hill reported three vessels in the Strait of Hormuz were attacked by Iranian forces, operated by Thailand, Japan, and Liberia. 

These attacks constricted or stopped the flow of tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, through which approximately 20 percent of the world’s oil travels, and spiked oil prices above $100 per barrel. Iran has likely achieved the largest global energy disruption in decades.  

The relative cost of intercepts has introduced a game of economic attrition, given that U.S. interceptors worth approximately $12 million are being utilized to strike large numbers of Iranian Shahed drones, which cost only $20,000 to $50,000. Iran’s use of Shahed drones has resulted in billions in damaged U.S. equipment. In response, the U.S. has introduced a reverse engineered version of the Shahed at a similar cost.  

Despite the havoc created by Iran, the U.S. attack plan has had an appreciable effect on degrading Iranian capabilities. The Pentagon is reporting that Iran has reduced its missile launches at U.S. and regional targets by 90 percent, and drone launches have been reduced 86 percent. In the coming weeks, success will likely come down to how many missiles, launchers and drones they have left versus how many interceptors we have. 

Although our installations remain quite resilient due to robust air defense systems, Iran’s ability to conduct asymmetric warfare has broadened.  Our bases are holding up well, but what we’re seeing from Iran’s approach is different. It’s a burgeoning strategic dilemma that combat planners will have to account for in the coming weeks.

Ravi Chaudhary is former assistant secretary of the Air Force for Installations and Energy. He also served as a U.S. Air Force pilot, combat planner, and director of the  personnel recovery center for Iraq in 2008. 

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