The Memo: Trump’s claims on Iran feed optimism — and confusion

Optimism and confusion were intermingled Friday as President Trump suggested an end to the conflict in Iran was within reach, even as many of his claims were met with silence or murmurs of dissent from Tehran.

The war is at an inflection point, seven weeks after it was launched by the United States and Israel. But its new trajectory is shrouded in doubt. No actual peace deal exists, and the key points of contention are far from resolved.

For so long as that is the case, it’s impossible to gauge which side will be able to claim a strategic victory in a conflict that has had a cascade of effects.

The war has inflicted enormous damage on the Iranian military, particularly its navy and air force, and has left more than 3,000 Iranians dead. 

It has also claimed the lives of 13 U.S. service members, cost American taxpayers roughly $1 billion per day, roiled financial and energy markets, provided cover for a new Israeli invasion of Lebanon in which more than 2,000 people have been killed, and deepened the schisms between the U.S. and its traditional allies.

Now, it might be near an end — or not.

There is concrete agreement on just one topic: A significant reopening of the vital Strait of Hormuz is underway. 

The shipping channel, through which roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil transits under normal circumstances, is a pivotal issue in the conflict. Iran has exercised de facto control over the strait to drive oil prices up.

The first news of the strait’s reopening came in a social media post from Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi shortly before 9 a.m. U.S. EDT Friday.

Citing the ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon that went into effect the previous day — a truce that had been demanded by Iran — Araghchi wrote that the Strait of Hormuz “is declared completely open” for the duration of the broader cessation between the U.S. and Iran.

Twenty-one minutes later, Trump took to Truth Social to welcome the news.  

His tone, in that message and a longer one soon after, was enthusiastic. But, by his standards, he restrained any gloating or triumphalism — an approach that may speak to the delicacy of ongoing negotiations.

Trump’s first message merely restated that the strait would reopen, with the president appending an emphatic “THANK YOU!”

His second message held out hope of a more durable agreement — but with a catch.

Trump said the U.S. blockade on vessels going to and from Iranian ports would remain in place for now. 

But, he added, this would be the case only “until such time as our transaction with Iran is 100% complete. This process should go very quickly in that most of the points are already negotiated.”  

The positive shift was enough to spur a surge of optimism on Wall Street, where markets opened moments after Trump’s second social media post.

By the close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average had risen more than 800 points, or 1.8 percent. Other major indexes followed suit. Meanwhile, the price of oil dropped precipitously, by around 9 percent.

Beyond that, however, the picture becomes far more complicated.

There is a clear impetus for both sides to find a lasting peace.

The Iranians want the boot of the U.S. and Israeli militaries off their neck and to begin repairing the damage suffered by their economy and infrastructure. 

Trump wants to bring gas prices down for Americans and avoid getting more deeply enmeshed in yet another Middle East conflict. His GOP colleagues are eager to change the subject away from a broadly unpopular war with the midterm elections less than seven months away.

But any long-term peace deal would have to clarify the future of Iran’s nuclear enrichment program — and the stock of highly enriched uranium that it still holds. The Islamic Republic is estimated to possess around 970 pounds of the substance.

An agreement would also need to clarify how shipping will proceed through the Strait of Hormuz over the longer term.

Trump made a series of sweeping claims on these topics Friday, both on social media and in phone calls with reporters. 

For example, he wrote on Truth Social, “The U.S.A. will get all Nuclear ‘Dust,’ created by our great B2 Bombers – No money will exchange hands in any way, shape, or form.”

“Nuclear dust” is Trump’s preferred terminology for the nuclear material held at Iranian sites that were bombed last summer. 

The president also indicated during his media calls that Iran had committed to cease uranium enrichment. Elsewhere on social media, he wrote that Iran was “removing all sea mines” and that it had “agreed to never close the Strait of Hormuz again.”

The president provided no corroborating evidence for any of those claims, and many of them were disputed by Iranian sources.

Reuters on Friday afternoon cited an unnamed senior Iranian official who said that “no agreement has been reached on the details of the nuclear issues” — a direct contradiction of Trump’s assertions.

Reuters characterized the official’s overall view as being that there are “significant differences” between Washington and Tehran that would have to be bridged before any agreement would be possible.

Ominously, Iran’s Fars News Agency, closely linked with the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), also made a highly unusual intervention — in effect reprimanding Araghchi for his social media post about the reopening of the strait.

Fars, describing the foreign minister’s message as “unexpected,” went on to complain that Iranian society had been “plunged into an atmosphere of confusion.”

The news agency took aim at “the absolute and strange silence of the Supreme National Security Council and the negotiating team” about what was going on. 

In a separate post, Fars quoted an unnamed foreign ministry spokesperson as saying that the “enemy” — the U.S. — had “repeatedly made contradictory statements within a single day, aimed at media hype.”

The Fars messages were seen by Iran experts as evidence of disagreement within the ranks of the regime. They weren’t the only such evidence.

The mayor of Tehran, Alireza Zakani, wrote on social media that, if Trump’s statements were lies, someone should “refute them loudly, without hesitation.”

He added, “But if, God forbid, they are true, we must not gift the enemy at the negotiating table what he failed to seize on the battlefield.”

Trump and his allies might be able to take some measure of satisfaction at the apparent consternation in Tehran.

But there is also a wide gap between what the president is claiming Iran has agreed to and what the Islamic Republic’s leadership is saying.

That leaves much of the world holding its breath — and waiting to see if Trump’s bullishness is borne out, or if his statements give way to a harder, more uncertain reality.

The Memo is a reported column by Niall Stanage.

Copyright 2026 Nexstar Media Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.

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