The Memo: Trump’s claims on Iran feed optimism — and confusion

Optimism and confusion were intermingled Friday as President Trump suggested an end to the conflict in Iran was within reach, even as many of his claims were met with silence or murmurs of dissent from Tehran.

The war is at an inflection point, seven weeks after it was launched by the United States and Israel. But its new trajectory is shrouded in doubt. No actual peace deal exists, and the key points of contention are far from resolved.

For so long as that is the case, it’s impossible to gauge which side will be able to claim a strategic victory in a conflict that has had a cascade of effects.

The war has inflicted enormous damage on the Iranian military, particularly its navy and air force, and has left more than 3,000 Iranians dead. 

It has also claimed the lives of 13 U.S. service members, cost American taxpayers roughly $1 billion per day, roiled financial and energy markets, provided cover for a new Israeli invasion of Lebanon in which more than 2,000 people have been killed, and deepened the schisms between the U.S. and its traditional allies.

Now, it might be near an end — or not.

There is concrete agreement on just one topic: A significant reopening of the vital Strait of Hormuz is underway. 

The shipping channel, through which roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil transits under normal circumstances, is a pivotal issue in the conflict. Iran has exercised de facto control over the strait to drive oil prices up.

The first news of the strait’s reopening came in a social media post from Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi shortly before 9 a.m. U.S. EDT Friday.

Citing the ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon that went into effect the previous day — a truce that had been demanded by Iran — Araghchi wrote that the Strait of Hormuz “is declared completely open” for the duration of the broader cessation between the U.S. and Iran.

Twenty-one minutes later, Trump took to Truth Social to welcome the news.  

His tone, in that message and a longer one soon after, was enthusiastic. But, by his standards, he restrained........

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