The Memo: Despite Trump’s claims, Iran war is doing him damage

A new round of peace talks on Iran is tentatively set for this week in Islamabad, Pakistan — but there is growing evidence that President Trump has sustained political injury from the conflict that will not be easily undone.

Trump and key allies like Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth insist that the U.S. military has already won a great victory in Iran. American and Israeli bombardments have, to be sure, inflicted serious damage on the Islamic Republic, especially its navy and air force.

But the question of strategic victory is a very different one — especially since Iran has displayed an ability to block the vital Strait of Hormuz, sending oil and gas prices to levels far above their prewar range.

Then there are the political ramifications at home.

White House chief of staff Susie Wiles was reported to be meeting with Republican strategists on Monday to help plot out a course in advance of the midterms. But Democrats believe they have the momentum — and that Trump’s Iran war has added to it.

“The Republicans have no message,” said Democratic strategist Mark Longabaugh. “Their whole message is defending a war that nobody wants and nobody approves of.”

For the moment, Trump continues to proclaim success — though often in a conspicuously defensive tone.

“I’m winning a War, BY A LOT, things are going very well,” Trump insisted on social media early Monday afternoon.

He immediately went on to disparage major news organizations — The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal and The Washington Post — for coverage that, he contended, would lead readers to “actually think we are losing the War.”

But a new poll from NBC News released Sunday found Trump’s approval rating at the lowest point of his second term. Just 37 percent of surveyed adults support his performance in office so far, while 63 percent disapprove. 

The poll found 67 percent of Americans disapprove of how Trump has handled the war in Iran, while just 33 percent approve.

The administration’s struggle with messaging — a problem throughout the seven-week conflict — reared its head again over the weekend, when Trump’s Energy secretary, Chris Wright, told CNN’s “State of the Union” that average gas prices “might not” return to their prewar level — just less than $3 per gallon — until next year.

Asked by The Hill’s Julia Manchester about Wright’s remarks on Monday morning, Trump contended, “He’s wrong on that. Totally wrong.”

The national average price for a gallon of regular gas was $4.04 on Monday, according to AAA.

Trump allies have taken some heart from the performance of financial markets since a ceasefire came into effect less than two weeks ago. Major stock indices rebounded quickly, hitting all-time highs as the price of oil dropped.

But some experts worry that markets have not fully priced in the scale of economic disruption that has been caused by the de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

“I think there is very significant, serious economic fallout from what is going on in the Middle East,” Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, told this column. 

Beyond the hit on oil production, Zandi cited effects on natural gas and on substances critical for specific industries such as fertilizer for agriculture, helium for microchips and aluminum for consumer electronics.

Trump has so far suggested the fact the United States is energy-independent will dull the impact here. He often highlights this point while airing his grievances about other nations, which he believes should have done more to open the strait.

“We’re now starting the process of clearing out the Strait of Hormuz as a favor to Countries all over the World,” he wrote on social media on April 11. “Incredibly, they don’t have the Courage or Will to do this work themselves. Very interestingly, however, empty Oil carrying ships from many Nations are all heading to the United States of America to LOAD UP with Oil.”

However, it’s not quite as simple as that. 

For a start, oil is a global commodity, so rising prices affect everyone to some degree. The related increase in the prices of gas and diesel raises transportation costs across the board, including in the United States — and they are virtually certain to be passed along to consumers.

The cascading effects of the war have also led to a chorus of opposition from some quarters of the conservative movement. Usually reliable Trump allies like Tucker Carlson and Megyn Kelly have been fiercely critical — earning social media rebukes from the president in the process — while more idiosyncratic figures from podcaster Joe Rogan to former Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) have also expressed discontent.

Trump’s sensitivity to criticism plainly extends to the accusation that he was lured into the war by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who has been calling for an attack on Iran for decades. 

“Israel never talked me into the war with Iran, the results of Oct. 7th, added to my lifelong opinion that IRAN CAN NEVER HAVE A NUCLEAR WEAPON, did,” Trump wrote on social media on Monday morning. “I watch and read the FAKE NEWS Pundits and Polls in total disbelief. 90% of what they say are lies and made up stories.” 

Politically, the war has steepened an already rough climb for Republicans in November’s midterm elections. 

Democrats are now the heavy favorites to claim the majority in the House, and, even more surprisingly, gaining control of the Senate is now a realistic goal. 

The upper chamber had, until recently, been seen as beyond Democrats’ grasp, largely because they have to defend seats in states Trump carried in 2024, including Michigan and Georgia, while picking up seats elsewhere.

GOP figures continue to evince some level of confidence that they will at least hold the Senate.

But Democrats like Longabaugh argue the pieces are falling into place for their party.

“If you are Republican House candidate, or even one of these Senate candidates, what are you going to say about gas prices? They are not going to have an answer,” he said.

The Memo is a reported column by Niall Stanage.

Copyright 2026 Nexstar Media Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.

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