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Trump’s economic moves risk eroding GOP’s working class support

President Trump’s economic moves risk alienating even some of his party’s core voters.

Trump is heading into his State of the Union on Tuesday with dismal approval ratings that show a reversal of 2024 gains among independents, young voters and Latinos. Now, new polling signals a possible slip in support from the white working class, or white voters without college degrees — a bloc that made up more than half of Trump’s coalition in each of his three White House bids.

Though working class voters are the cornerstone of Trump’s base, enduring concerns about the economy and cost-of-living issues could signal trouble for Republicans heading into this fall’s high-stakes midterms. 

“The Republicans in general have given up ground, they’re no longer nine or 10-point favorites to handle the economy,” said Scott Tranter, director of data science for Decision Desk HQ. “People are most worried about the economy and affordability. That generally doesn’t bode well for the party in power.”

“How does that translate to the working class?” he added. “Look, if the general voter has a problem with [being] worried about keeping their job or paying for that vacation, that mostly hurts the working class vote. And we’ll see how that plays out.”

Trump’s overall approval rating was roughly 15 points underwater ahead of his first State of the Union of his second term, according to DDHQ’s polling aggregate — about the biggest gulf he’s logged since returning to the Oval Office. Approximately 42 percent approve of his presidency, while 56 percent disapprove. 

His disapproval numbers among independent, African American and Hispanic voters have also climbed since his last address to Congress, by roughly 10 points, 11 points and 16 points, respectively, according to DDHQ. 

The main drag on Trump’s polling is the economy, which remains perhaps the biggest issue for voters in the midterms. Trump campaigned on promises to lower prices, but, a year into his second term, persistent inflation, sweeping tariffs and high cost-of-living have made the economy a political liability for the GOP. 

The annual inflation rate of 2.4 percent in January was down from a peak of 3 percent in September, but only slightly lower than the 2.7 percent annual rate during Trump’s election in November 2024. The unemployment rate also rose from 4 percent in January 2025 to 4.3 percent as of last month, and the economy added just 181,000 jobs in total last year, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Disapproval of Trump’s economic handling hit a new high in a recent NPR/PBS News/Marist poll. Nearly 60 percent of respondents, including 65 percent of independents, to a February Washington Post/ABC News/Ipsos survey disapproved of the president’s handling of the issue.

And nearly half of respondents in a Scripps News/Talker Research poll on Monday said they were most interested in hearing Trump talk about the economy in his Tuesday address.

The president is expected to tout his economic gains in his State of the Union speech and highlight early signs of relief.

Still, to make matters worse ahead of the 2026 elections, there are also signs of a downtick in support from the white working class.

Cook Political Report’s poll tracker of white, non-college voters shows Trump tumbled from a 13-point net approval at this point last year to a slim 3.5-point edge as of Monday. 

Data from the polling firm Cygnal this month also showed Trump losing ground with non-college Americans, highlighting “vulnerabilities for Republicans among core Trump base segments, particularly working-class and older men,” according to a report from the group. 

Experts underscored that the working class population is not a monolith, and different analysts may draw contrasting lines dividing the bloc. They stressed that there isn’t enough data to suggest a major erosion, but noted recent numbers as the latest sign that voters are souring on the Trump administration as a competitive midterm year ramps up.

“There’s been slippage. It’s not something you would call evaporating support, and that remains certainly his strongest group, … they remain his most loyal base,” said Charles Franklin, the director of the Marquette Law School Poll in Wisconsin, of white blue-collar voters. “But he does not want to see it slip with them.”

Democrats once had the advantage over Republicans among noncollege voters overall, but they’ve trended Republican in recent elections. As of 2024, white noncollege voters associated with Republicans by nearly two-to-one, according to the Pew Research Center. 

“If we were to just rewind the tape, before 2016, the uneducated white voter by and large would have voted Democratic,” said nonpartisan pollster Brett Loyd.

“I wouldn’t be surprised if, on an election year like this, when they’re looking to their union [representatives] and the people in their offices, and if they’re hurt by this back-and-forth tariff stuff, if they’re hurt with the economy, if their pocketbooks are hurting, and their union says this … they’re not talking about Trump,” he added.

Of course, Trump won’t be on the ballot in the midterms. And though he’s still set to be heavily involved via endorsements and stops in key states, it remains to be seen how frustration with him — among working class voters or otherwise — will affect the GOP in November.

In recent weeks, Trump has traveled to Pennsylvania, Michigan and Georgia, touting his agenda, dismissing affordability as a Democratic “hoax,” and casting blame on his predecessor.

But for voters pinching pennies at the grocery store and gas pump, it may be hard to believe any broader economic benefits. 

“Remember that a lot of people without college degrees, who were Trump’s education base, don’t own stocks. Trump’s always talking about the stock market hitting new highs and doing so well and the investment community and 401ks and all of that,” said David Paleologos, the director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center. 

“The average person, especially the average person without a college education, has a lower probability of owning stocks, so they’re feeling like they’re falling behind in the Trump economy,” he continued. 

Still, just because voters are frustrated with Trump and Republicans’ economic moves, it doesn’t mean they’ll flock to vote for Democrats this Novemeber. 

“If a team fumbles and you get the ball, you don’t actually score until you do something with it,” said Loyd. 

“Trump’s approval [ratings] — they’re low. They’re bad. They’re really bad among independents. They’re bad among his younger males that kind of helped him get into office. They’re bad among the middle class. They’re deteriorating,” Loyd said. “My biggest point, though, is: what are Democrats doing about it?”

Democrats are also struggling with poor numbers for the party brand as they search for a new standard-bearer ahead of 2028.

The party, though, has a 6-point advantage on a generic congressional ballot for 2026, according to DDHQ averages, as it seeks to capitalize on off-year election momentum and the frustration with Trump. 

“It’s still a fragmented segment of the population. … Those subsets in a poll can be very small, but I do agree … that there has been a bit of a pullback in the margin that Trump had in 2024 among working class people,” said Paleologos. 

“The question is … does that trend continue so that it becomes a tipping point in the midterm elections, or does it bottom out in reverse itself?”

Copyright 2026 Nexstar Media Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.

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