California’s 3-horse race for governor comes down to the wire

▪ Close finish looks likely in California

▪ Status of Iran talks uncertain

▪ Trump drops ‘anti-weaponization’ fund

▪ Airline industry pushes back on Mullin

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It’s primary day in California, and the primary field for governor appears to be down to a three-horse race — with two candidates advancing to the general election in November.

Biden-era Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra (D), the state’s former attorney general, has pulled ahead in recent polling as billionaire Tom Steyer (D) and former Fox News commentator Steve Hilton (R) are vying for second place.

California’s jungle primary system means the two candidates receiving the greatest number of votes — regardless of party affiliation — will advance.

No clear Democratic frontrunner has emerged in the race to replace Gov. Gavin Newsom (D), previously raising some concern that two Republicans could emerge from the field of dozens of candidates.

It’s now the GOP that could get locked out, if Becerra and Steyer edge out Hilton.

In the latest Emerson College Polling/Inside California Politics survey, conducted late last week, Becerra gets support from 28 percent of likely primary voters, while Steyer is backed by 22 percent and Hilton by 21 percent.

Just two weeks earlier, the race was much narrower: with Becerra getting 19 percent, and Steyer and Hilton each getting 17 percent support.

The field changed dramatically after former Rep. Eric Swalwell (D-Calif.), who had begun to emerge as the frontrunner in the race, ended his candidacy amid allegations of sexual misconduct, which he denied. The scandal breathed new life into Becerra’s campaign after the March poll had the former secretary polling at just 3 percent.

“Xavier Becerra maintains frontrunner status in the final Emerson poll ahead of Tuesday’s primary, while Tom Steyer and Steve Hilton both have paths to advance to the November general election,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said in a statement.

Other candidates could help sway the outcome as well. Riverside County, Calif., Sheriff Chad Bianco (R) is polling at 12 percent in the latest Emerson poll.

“If Chad Bianco’s support erodes by Election Day, Hilton is positioned to benefit,” Kimball added.

Former Rep. Katie Porter (D-Calif.), once seen as a formidable opponent on the left, has seen her support fall dramatically — from 16 percent in September to 5 percent in the latest poll. San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan (D) is also polling at 5 percent.

▪ The Hill: Tense California governor’s race comes to a head.

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OTHER PRIMARIES TO WATCH: In Los Angeles, Mayor Karen Bass (D) seems likely to advance to the general election but faces two drastically different potential general election matchups.

Republican reality television personality Spencer Pratt and progressive city Council member Nithya Raman are in a close contest for second. According to Decision Desk HQ’s polling average, Bass leads with 26.4 percent, followed by Pratt at 18.4 and Raman at 15.9.

Meanwhile on the other coast, a handful of Democrats are competing in a primary to challenge Rep. Tom Kean Jr. (R-N.J.), who has been absent from Congress for nearly three months because of an undisclosed medical issue.

Democrats are increasingly targeting his New Jersey district, which Cook Political Report rates a “toss up.” Kean faces no primary opponent today, but four Democrats are competing to face him in November.

In Iowa, Democrats will have to choose between state Sen. Zach Wahls and state Rep. Josh Turek to take on likely GOP candidate Rep. Ashley Hinson in the race for U.S. Senate. The Democratic primary has grown bitter, with Wahls trying to cast Turek as beholden to Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) and the party establishment.

The race for governor in Iowa is also one to watch, as recent polling suggests Rep. Randy Feenstra’s (R-Iowa) initial lead has all but disappeared, despite having the highest name recognition. But a late endorsement from President Trump may put Feenstra over the hurdle for a matchup with Democratic State Auditor Rob Sand in November.

Smart Take with Blake Burman

Homeland Security (DHS) Secretary Markwayne Mullin reiterated Monday that potentially moving some U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) agents out of airports is an option, but only if local and state leaders in sanctuary jurisdictions don’t work with DHS.

“Yes, we have a........

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