The Korean War offers lessons for a fragile US-Iran ceasefire

This is quite a truce or ceasefire going on between the U.S. and Iran. Each side continues to strike the other on a tit-for-tat basis as talks continue. But to anyone with a bent for history, this is not unique.

During the Korean War that began on June 25, 1950, talks between the United Nations, U.S. forces and North Korea went on for two years and 17 days between July 1951 and July 1953, when a truce was reached. During this period about 13,000 U.S. service personnel were killed from a total of about 36,000 war dead. So, these attacks should not be surprising.

The crucial question for the U.S. is what are the leaders of the Islamic Republic in Tehran thinking? It is far from clear that the U.S. understands the view from Tehran and even if that were the case, would it make a difference? Let’s speculate.

Assuming that the so-called divisions among the various Iranian factions are overstated, Tehran must consider itself in a favorable position.

First, Iran’s key negotiators are far more experienced than their U.S. counterparts led by Vice President JD Vance, President Trump’s son-in-law, Jared Kushner, and real estate chum Steve Witkoff. Speaker of the Iranian Parliament Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghachi were part of the 2015 negotiations and are backed up by Kazem Gharibabadi and Majid Takht-Ravanchi, both deputy foreign ministers.

Second, Iran understands that its two most vital strategic levers are the Strait........

© The Hill