How the war with Iran is actually going

While President Donald Trump has told Americans that Operation Epic Fury is “way ahead of schedule,” how well are the U.S. and Israel doing in compelling Iran to submit to our demands, no matter how confusing they may be in declaring the outcomes we seek?  

According to press reports, U.S. officials confirmed five KC-135 tankers crucial to refueling striking aircraft were damaged at an airbase in Saudi Arabia. One had a mid-air collision and crashed killing its aircrew. And an F-35 was reportedly damaged but made it safely to base. In addition to three F-15’s downed by friendly Kuwaiti fire, over 200 American service personnel have been wounded or killed by Iranian missiles and drones.

So, despite Trump’s reports of destroying Iran’s Navy and Air Force, Tehran is still conducting missile and drone strikes against U.S. and local allies in the Gulf. The question must be what Iran’s strategy is and is it working or failing? At this stage, there are no answers to that or to whether the U.S. and Israel will achieve their political objectives based on the use of military force. Trump has already reprimanded Israel for attacking Iranian gas production facilities. But here is a classic irony.

Iran has closed the Strait of Hormuz. As the administration considers lifting sanctions on Iranian oil, Trump has signaled that the flow of energy from the Gulf must be kept open, as U.S. gas prices surge near $4 per barrel. His policy is contradictory. The only leverage Trump has is to threaten Iranian energy production facilities. But to do so, he is merely increasing energy costs that could redound against him in the November elections.

From the U.S. and Israeli side, after conducting over 7,000 strikes, finding appropriate targets must be an issue. Since the energy infrastructure seems to be off limits and much of Iran’s military capability was destroyed or is unreachable because it is buried so deeply underground, where are all the bombs and missiles headed? Further, since rearming U.S. warships at sea with Tomahawk and other missiles is not possible, how are the surface escorts going to be replenished? And after fire sent the USS Ford back to Crete for repairs, it will take time for USS Nimitz to replace it.

The U.S. is sending a Marine Expeditionary Unit to the Gulf. While a Marine Expeditionary Unit consists of at least three ships — in this case an LHA “lightning carrier” and two dock landing ships of some 2,500 sailors and Marines — only 800 Marines are in the infantry battalion. 

To think that such a small force, despite the air power that could be mounted from the Gulf to support it, could seize control of the Strait of Hormuz or capture Iran’s uranium at Natanz brings back memories of “Blackhawk Down” and the fiasco in Mogadishu to capture a Somali warlord in 1993 that led to 19 U.S. deaths and 79 wounded.

While it can be argued that Iran has mounted a brilliant campaign to win by not losing, using a combination of missiles and drones to punish Gulf states while blocking the Strait to impose huge economic pressure on the U.S., why was it unable to prevent the U.S. and Israel from devastating its conventional forces?  

Surely Iran had months to react to the Midnight Hammer bombing that “obliterated” its nuclear ambitions, if Trump is correct. But it made no attempts to use decoys and cover to protect its air force and navy. It had three capable Kilo class Russian built submarines. Apparently, none was operational. Why not? And knowing that USS Ford had to transit Suez and the Red Sea, why did Iran not mobilize its Houthi allies to disrupt that passage?

Over time, all these questions may be answered. If one recalls, the initial assaults into Afghanistan by NATO forces and Iraq in 2003 were hugely successful. However, do those operations have any consequences for Iran? While the Taliban and Saddam’s army were routed, who has all the time and not the watches in Kabul? And who is running Iraq?

Going to war sometimes is too easy, especially with a compliant Congress. Ending wars, as the U.S. learned in Vietnam, Afghanistan and Iraq after 2003, did not go well. The question is whether President Trump is being told the realities of this war. Or are his advisors merely reinforcing his decisions, as Lyndon Johnson’s and George W. Bush’s team led the march of folly into failure and defeat?

Harlan Ullman, Ph.D., is UPI’s Arnaud deBorchgrave Distinguished Columnist, a senior adviser at the Atlantic Council, the chairman of two private companies and the principal author of the doctrine of shock and awe. He and former United Kingdom Defense Chief David Richards are the authors of a forthcoming book on preventing strategic catastrophe.

Copyright 2026 Nexstar Media Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.

More Opinions - National Security News

GOP cracks in Senate begin to show in DHS shutdown fight

Republicans reject Democrats’ effort to pay TSA by suspending Senate rules

Trump: US isn’t negotiating with Iran’s supreme leader

Homan: ICE officers will not assist with airport security scanning amid TSA ...

Iran says it’s not in negotiations with the US, ‘Trump backed down’

Manchin urges Democrats to ‘stand up’ to Senate GOP amid push to nix ...

Cruz proposes splitting ICE from Homeland Security funding bill to end airport ...

Trump: No shutdown deal until Democrats support SAVE America Act

Bessent responds to Trump’s post about Mueller’s death

Christie on Trump response to Mueller death: ‘What a child does’

JFK suspends wait time reporting amid DHS shutdown

Speaker Mike Johnson faces potential attendance problems as major bills loom

Supreme Court backs officer seeking immunity from Vermont House protester’s ...

USS Gerald R. Ford aircraft carrier leaves Middle East amid Iran fight

This week on the Hill: Marathon debate on SAVE America Act enters second week

How the war with Iran is actually going

Trump calls airports ‘fertile territory’ for ICE

There’s no way to redeem Trump’s dismal second presidency

The Hill Podcasts – Morning Report

© The Hill