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All eyes on Iran: How far is Trump willing to go?

In President Trump’s second term, his coercive diplomacy sends different signals to the Iranian regime and Tehran’s dictator. The combination of negotiations (as an exit ramp), military pressure (as the cost of refusal), and ambiguity (uncertainty in outcomes) constitutes Trump’s policy — one not inherently irrational within the realm of realism.

Trump is determined not to let Iran become a nuclear power. For this simple reason, he has become a target of vehement hostility in the Iranian propaganda machine.

And although “deal or war” is a classical compliance tactic, its main flaw is that the regime’s commitment to survival may be more intense than Trump’s commitment to its destruction. Trump has spoken out against “forever wars” in the Middle East. So the question is, is Iran a main concern to him? Is he ready to finish the job, now that the drumbeat of regime change in Iran has risen? Is Trump genuinely interested in destroying the Islamic Shiite caliphate in Tehran?

As a matter of logic, there is no certainty that a second U.S. strike — after the one launched last June — would result in regime change.

Khamenei became supreme leader in 1989, after serving eight years as Iran’s president. From the start, he embraced terrorism and developed terrorist proxies — a transnational terrorist network across the region.

His fingerprints are on many attacks and terrorist operations worldwide. The U.S. intelligence community possesses long-recorded evidence — for instance, the issuance of a fatwa against Trump himself, calling for his assassination. Global media covered Khamenei’s intentions and security service reports bluntly.

It would be a fantasy to believe Khamenei’s survival would contribute to stability and peace in the region. He is the sole decision-maker in Iran’s caliphate system, wielding authoritarian power. He believes Trump has no coherent plan for Iran and that Trump is merely bluffing for show. It is certain Khamenei does not want Trump around. He seeks to outwait him and is counting on the end of Trump’s presidency.

The Iranian Shiite caliphate is a malicious actor on the world stage, and Trump grasps the reality of the belligerent Iranian regime’s malign activities. Tehran therefore tries not to misread Trump’s signals, so as to avoid escalation. The junta-mullah regime in Iran has interpreted Trump’s policy as a structural contradiction within negotiations.

Obama attempted, through his administration’s nuclear deal, to control Iran’s ambitions. But this failed. More accurately, the flawed foundation of that deal provided a free path toward nuclear weapons, entirely advantageous to the regime in Tehran. The Shiite regime deceived Obama, never remained in compliance with the deal and consistently cheated.

As Trump has put it in other contexts, “You can’t play that game with me.” During his first term, Trump did not fully grasp Khamenei’s true objective to build the first Shi’ite nuclear bomb. That’s why Trump’s enthusiasm for a deal led nowhere. Khamenei had no intention of rewarding Trump with hugs and kisses. He is no dove, nor does he bear an olive branch. He rejected navigating the labyrinth of negotiations, leading once again to failure and stalemate.

At this stage, Khamenei was reluctant to provoke Trump directly, but this too was likely a miscalculation. Predictably, he scorned Trump and rejected his proposals. Guided by Shiite ideological rigidity and deep dishonesty, he will never relinquish nuclear weapons, terrorist proxies, or missile programs. Khamenei’s mindset frames his terrorist plans in theological terms, rebranding violence as religious victory or war against infidels. This is why the U.S. now finds itself drawn into a strategic cul-de-sac.

Khamenei harbors delusions about attacking U.S. aircraft carriers in the Persian Gulf, eliminating Trump via sleeper cells inside U.S. territory, humiliating Trump by announcing Iran’s first nuclear bomb and activating terrorist proxies against U.S. forces.

Meanwhile, Trump has said of regime change in Iran, “It seems like that would be the best thing that could happen.” But is he serious? Trump has doubted whether Khamenei could be toppled quickly. But Israel and the U.S. missed opportunities in June 2025 and January 2026, when internal tensions in Iran were escalating and Khamenei stood on the brink of collapse.

If diplomacy fails, eliminating a leader actively pursuing terrorism becomes a legitimate option, just as Obama took out Osama bin Laden in May 2011. A decapitation strike could be the final nail in the regime’s coffin, potentially neutralizing Iran’s multi-pronged threat.

The post-Khamenei era remains uncertain no matter what. From a realist perspective, Trump cannot tolerate nuclear weapons in the hands of such a bizarre regime. Khamenei, who never believed in peace and has no interest in a Nobel Prize, is responsible for the deaths of countless Americans and Israelis worldwide.

Iranian students have resumed anti-government protests as the U.S. ramps up its military presence in the Persian Gulf. Despite regime propaganda, Khamenei is in trouble. The regime is struggling to maintain control.

Trump’s decision-making reflects a rational strategy for U.S. policy and global credibility. The failure of negotiations now appears inevitable, and Trump’s growing frustration is evident.

Logically, the scale and intensity of the Iranian regime’s threat have become unacceptable. Addressing this ticking bomb requires a comprehensive strategy. Otherwise, Iran — as a rogue state and the world’s hub of transnational Islamic terrorism — will continue advancing toward nuclear weapons while the U.S. merely watches the grass grow.

Erfan Fard is the author of “Tehran’s Dictator: Khamenei’s Reign of Terror in Iran (1989-2025).”

Copyright 2026 Nexstar Media Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.

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