Republicans announce 2026 target map for state legislatures, highlight redistricting

A Republican group tasked with growing its majorities in state legislatures announced Thursday its list of priority states ahead of the November midterms, highlighting how some races could impact redistricting over the next decade in a memo shared first with The Hill.

In a memo from the Republican State Leadership Committee (RSLC), the Republican group said it’s looking to defend its majorities while flipping state legislative chambers in the divided state Capitols in Michigan and Pennsylvania. Republicans hold majorities in the Michigan House and Pennsylvania Senate.

The RSLC said it sees opportunities to flip the Michigan Senate and Pennsylvania House in addition to breaking the Minnesota House’s tied 67-67 control and flipping its Senate.

The Republican group is also looking to expand its foothold in states like Colorado, Maine, Nevada, New Mexico, New York, Oregon, Vermont and Washington.  

Yet, the RSLC is keenly aware of the political environment Republicans are heading into this November that is shaping up to look a lot like the 2018 midterm cycle, which was largely driven by anti-President Trump sentiment.  

“Just 33 [percent] of voters say the country is on the right track, a stark indicator of broad dissatisfaction with both parties,” the RSLC wrote in a memo, regarding an internal battleground survey it conducted in March. “This discontent is being shaped overwhelmingly by views of Washington, where voters see dysfunction, gridlock, and a lack of results.” 

“For voters across the ideological spectrum, ‘government’ has become synonymous with Congress, creating a distorted lens that fuels anti-incumbent sentiment across the board, including in races far removed from federal decision-making,” the memo added. 

The RSLC said in its memo that voter attitudes are driven more by discontent over both parties’ leadership rather than state leaders themselves. 

“The opportunity for Republicans lies in sharpening that contrast, separating state leadership from Washington, focusing relentlessly on economic strength and public safety, and converting broad dissatisfaction into targeted, down-ballot gains,” the memo reads.

The group pointed to Arizona, Georgia, Iowa, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Texas and Wisconsin as its most critical areas to play defense in November. The RSLC suggested that the party also needed to keep an eye on GOP-dominated state legislatures in states like Florida, Indiana and Ohio.  

Perhaps most notably, the RSLC made the case to stakeholders that one of the prime reasons Republicans should be paying attention to and investing in state legislative races is because of their role in redistricting. Redistricting, the process of creating new election maps every decade, was once largely kept to a decennial timeline. 

Yet, a redistricting arms race sparked by national Republicans and the Trump White House pressing Texas GOP lawmakers to redraw their House map ahead of November created a domino effect in other blue and red states. It’s shown how the process can easily be turned on its head, while underscoring the power that often little-known state legislators hold. 

The RSLC pointed to Minnesota, Pennsylvania and Arizona as possible areas of concern. 

“2026 is not just another midterm,” the memo noted. “It is the cycle that will determine who draws the maps, who controls the U.S. House, and whether Republicans retain any realistic path to governing at the federal level in the years ahead.” 

The memo also pointed to efforts Republicans have taken to get started on state legislative races early, noting that “waiting to engage late is no longer a viable path to victory for Republicans at the state level.” Some of those efforts include a seven-figure investment in data infrastructure and programs like Project Doorstrike, a voter turnout initiative.

Democrats have seen a steady slew of overperformances in recent state legislative elections, most recently flipping two Trump-won Florida state legislative districts, one of which includes the president’s Mar-a-Lago resort. 

The Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee announced its first slate of state legislative targets earlier this month and anticipates engaging in at least 500 races overall, including about 300 Republican-held seats. 

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