I work for a major insurer, assessing the risk posed by natural disasters on properties around the world, from family homes to schools, government offices and multibillion-dollar commercial centres. The world is facing greater risk than ever from extreme weather. We are not prepared – and that inaction could have profound consequences for the global financial system.

In the face of ever more extreme and unpredictable climate risks, I am coming under pressure to cut my forecasts for the losses that disasters will cause in order to make insurance more affordable – and get my employer more business. In some instances, the questioning of our numbers and models is justified. But too often, it is not being done to produce more accurate models, but to artificially lower prices. If this is happening at my firm, which is struggling to compete with rivals’ prices, it’s happening elsewhere.

Our sector is carrying more risk than we realise. The warming global climate has caused more frequent high-intensity storms, rising sea levels, flooding, wildfires and drought. While the immediate impact of these events is plain to see, the long-term effects will be........

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