The farmer has finally been given a number. He still needs to know whether anyone will pay it. Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s announcement on 23 October of an indicative wheat price of Rs4,500 per 40 kilograms for the 2027 harvest deserves a welcome. The Rs1,000 increase acknowledges the rising costs farmers face as they prepare their fields. But those who sold below last season’s Rs3,500 benchmark will judge this announcement against what happened when their grain was ready. Another number cannot erase that memory. 

I farm in South Punjab. At the last harvest, I could afford to hold my wheat when the offers were poor. Many farmers could not. Their debts had matured, labour needed payment, and household expenses continued. The price might improve in June. The creditor wanted his money in April. That difference explains much of our wheat economy. A farmer compelled to sell and a trader able to wait do not enter the market on equal terms. Announcing a price changes neither man’s circumstances unless financing and buying arrangements change with it. Pakistan has spent successive seasons arguing about whether government should purchase wheat. The old system carried heavy costs, accumulated debt and distributed access unequally. Its reform was necessary. But its withdrawal left functions that somebody still had to perform. Seasonal buying needed finance. Grain needed storage. Deficit provinces needed supplies. The farmer needed a purchaser when repayment fell due.

The private sector could perform much of this work. It could not acquire the necessary capacity merely because government assigned it the task. Buying wheat at harvest requires money available at harvest. Banks need enforceable claims over the stocks they finance. These arrangements must be settled before grain reaches the market. Otherwise, the grower pays for the delay through the price he accepts. The Rs4,500 announcement should therefore be........

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