Through perhaps one of the gravest violations of international law, a dramatic escalation has unfolded, one whose ripples reach far into and across the Middle East and South Asia. The killing of Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, by a joint Israeli and US military strike is one of the most significant geopolitical events in recent history. It has triggered an immediate crisis of succession in Tehran, evident in retaliatory strikes across the region and posing a cascade of uncertainties, effectively reshaping power dynamics for Russia, China, India, and Pakistan.

Khamenei ruled Iran with an iron fist for 36 years. His death came at a critical moment, marked by an already declining influence of the regime in Iran and across the region. Iran has declared 40 days of mourning as a response, while simultaneously launching retaliatory military operations against Israel and US allies in the Persian Gulf, targeting strategic US partners such as Qatar, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia.

The Supreme Leader’s death has created a power vacuum, amplifying risks of internal chaos and external adventurism, implications of which extend far beyond Iran.

Pakistan shares a 959 km border with Iran, marked by complex diplomatic, religious, and economic ties. The recent developments pose an immediate threat to destabilise this delicate relationship. Pakistan’s Shia Muslim population, estimated at 15–20 per cent of the nation’s 230 million inhabitants, carries a deep spiritual and organisational connection to the Islamic regime and the Supreme Leader, which is evident in the mass protests and breaches of the US embassy and consulates.

Pakistan is now at a crossroads and must reconcile foreign policy priorities while quelling sectarian tensions, especially in Balochistan and parts of Punjab, where Sunni–Shia fault lines remain volatile. Border security along the Balochistan frontier, porous due to rugged terrain and smuggling routes, faces increased strain. Militants could exploit the chaos to cross freely, importing weapons or ideology.

This also puts the mutual defence pact between Pakistan and Saudi Arabia to the test. On one hand, Pakistan condemns the US–Israel attack on Iran, while simultaneously condemning Iranian retaliation against Saudi Arabia.

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ potential consolidation of power raises alarms. Hardliners are looking to pursue aggressive regional posturing, which will lead to proxy forces becoming far more active, carrying direct implications for Pakistan’s internal security. Baloch separatists who receive sporadic Iranian and Indian support are now unpredictable and desperate due to disruptions in Tehran’s command, complicating Islamabad’s counterinsurgency efforts, particularly at a time when Pakistan is already at war with the Taliban regime in Afghanistan.

India quietly celebrates the regime’s supposed fall, which aligns with its anti-Iran posture, and is looking to potentially strengthen Delhi’s US ties, which comes at Pakistan’s expense

India quietly celebrates the regime’s supposed fall, which aligns with its anti-Iran posture, and is looking to potentially strengthen Delhi’s US ties, which comes at Pakistan’s expense

Pakistan’s economy, already fragile due to years of IMF bailouts and structural reforms, is expected to face even more severe headwinds. Energy markets are highly volatile at the moment, and crude oil prices are surging, attributed to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which accounts for almost 30 per cent of the world’s oil trade. This means more hardship for Pakistan, which imports roughly 80 per cent of its oil. Higher costs mean inflated transportation and electricity generation expenses, as well as pressure on the national budget.

Projections indicate oil prices could climb 30 to 50 per cent within weeks, according to market analysts. This will inevitably exacerbate Pakistan’s current account deficit, already at 1.5 per cent of GDP. Inflation, hovering near 25 per cent, will spiral further as a result. Foreign remittances, which serve as a vital part of Pakistan’s economy, particularly from the Gulf and valued at $30 billion annually, may dip if regional instability prompts labour expulsions.

The Iran–Pakistan gas pipeline project, dormant due to US sanctions, now appears even more far-fetched. This denies Pakistan affordable natural gas to alleviate its chronic energy deficit of 7,000 megawatts. Alternative LNG imports from Qatar also look unlikely, owing to global tightness.

The killing unfolds under the Trump administration, known for its confrontational Iran stance, and future engagement is marred with uncertainty. Pakistan, which tries to balance its relations with the United States and China, must navigate these currents. Escalation between Iran and the US–Israel axis could force alignment choices, straining Islamabad’s non-aligned posture.

Nuclear dimensions loom large. Pakistan’s arsenal effectively helps deter its eastern neighbour but invites scrutiny amid Middle East volatility. Iranian instability might prompt Tehran to accelerate its covert programmes, heightening proliferation fears and inviting US pressure on Islamabad to share intelligence. Possible joint operational ventures may be proposed.

If the ousted Shah of Iran, Reza Pahlavi, is brought to power, the Iranian regime would effectively collapse. The Shah’s pro-Israeli stance is no secret within power circles, which means danger to Pakistan from yet another border.

China has a huge stake in Iranian stability, as it imports 10 per cent of its oil from Iran. For the Chinese, Iran is pivotal to the Belt and Road Initiative, and regional disruptions would pose threats to the China–Pakistan Economic Corridor, valued at $62 billion. Gwadar Port is central to CPEC, lying near the Iranian border, where militant spillover would lead to disruptions in the project, costing Pakistan billions in losses.

Russia faces a broader threat if the Iranian regime collapses, risking the loss of its valuable geopolitical surveillance anchor and its reach within European circles.

Broader South Asia feels tremors. Afghanistan’s Taliban regime, Sunni hardliners with anti-Shia leanings, eyes Iranian weakness opportunistically but remains occupied momentarily with Pakistan’s military advances and its Operation Ghazab Lil Haq. Cross-border skirmishes risk intensifying, drawing Pakistan into mediation or confrontation.

India quietly celebrates the regime’s supposed fall, which aligns with its anti-Iran posture, and is looking to potentially strengthen Delhi’s US ties, which comes at Pakistan’s expense.

Khamenei’s death poses a watershed in Middle Eastern geopolitics, and with it, acute reverberations in South Asia follow. Pakistan sets out to confront multifaceted threats: sectarian fires, economic torpedoes, and diplomatic minefields. Immediate priorities are to bolster border patrols, strategically subsidise fuel, and dispatch envoys to Tehran, Riyadh, and Washington.

© The Friday Times