When the first missiles were fired on February 28, 2026, many observers hoped that the conflict would remain geographically confined and diplomatically manageable. That optimism has proved misplaced. The latest military escalation, involving attacks on strategic installations, renewed threats to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and direct exchanges between regional and extra-regional powers, demonstrates that the Middle East has entered a prolonged phase of instability whose consequences extend far beyond the battlefield.  

Oil markets have already reacted nervously, insurance premiums for shipping have risen, and economists are once again warning that prolonged disruption could push Brent crude towards levels last witnessed during previous global energy crises.  The greatest danger today is not merely the continuation of war; it is the institutionalisation of conflict as the organising principle of international politics. 

Every ceasefire has become temporary, every diplomatic breakthrough fragile and every military pause merely an interval before another escalation. The global economy is thus confronting not a short-lived geopolitical shock but the possibility of a prolonged war economy. Unlike the Arab-Israeli wars of previous decades, the present conflict is no longer confined to one theatre. Military operations now intersect with maritime security, cyber warfare, energy infrastructure and global financial markets. The Strait of Hormuz, through which nearly one-fifth of globally traded crude oil passes, has once again become the world’s most sensitive economic chokepoint. 

Strategic partnerships cannot substitute for domestic reform.

Strategic partnerships cannot substitute for domestic reform.

Even without a complete closure, the mere possibility of disruption is sufficient to raise freight costs, insurance premiums and speculative pressures in commodity markets. Recent economic modelling shows that maritime chokepoint disruptions generate losses far exceeding the value of the cargo itself because they interrupt complex global production networks and supply chains. 

Pakistan is among the countries most exposed to these developments. The vulnerability arises from what may be described as Pakistan’s triple external dependence: imported petroleum, Gulf remittances and maritime commerce. More than ninety percent of Pakistan’s imported oil reaches its ports through sea-lanes directly affected by tensions in the Gulf. 

Millions of Pakistani workers........

© The Friday Times