A consensus is increasingly developing among defence analysts around the world that Iran has won the war. It now controls the Strait of Hormuz, which the United States and its allies have no power to reopen by military means whatsoever.

Since the start of the war, the Iranian rial has gained around 11 per cent against the US dollar, as it now sells almost twice the volume of oil, and no longer at discounted prices. This has provided Iran with economic strength, enabling it to sustain the war and support its population, which is bearing the bombing by US–Israeli air forces. Simultaneously, Iran has gained military confidence against its adversaries, who now appear to be projecting power from a distance.

It would be unfair to describe Iran’s military strategy as merely asymmetrical. Rather than investing in a conventional modern air force, Iran has chosen to prosecute the war at a more advanced level. What is unfolding can be seen as a form of sixth-generation warfare confronting the fifth-generation military machinery of the United States and Israel, both of which rely heavily on conventional air power and aircraft carriers. These assets were forced to withdraw from the battlefield in the initial phase. Indisputably, Iran’s military strategy—supported by Russian and Chinese assistance—has outmanoeuvred the combined US–Israeli effort.

Talk of deploying the US 82nd Airborne Division to capture Kharg Island remains just that talk. Defence analysts broadly agree that such a move is unlikely. Meanwhile, the vast weapons stockpiles of Gulf monarchies have proven ineffective in the face of Iran’s threats to destroy their oil and other critical infrastructure should they join any military venture alongside the........

© The Friday Times