In the modern global economy, oceans have quietly become arenas of power, resilience, and survival. What was once viewed simply as a trade route is now a strategic domain where economic stability, energy security, and geopolitical relevance are tested every day.

The concept of the blue economy captures this shift well, emphasising the sustainable use of ocean resources to drive growth, employment, and long-term national prosperity. Yet beneath the sustainability narrative lies a harder truth: in an increasingly fragmented world, maritime capability is no longer optional; it is existential.

Globally, more than four-fifths of all merchandise trade moves by sea, and over 90% of energy commodities such as crude oil, LNG, and coal depend on uninterrupted maritime supply chains. Countries that own ships retain control over these lifelines; those that do not are exposed to freight volatility, political pressure, and sudden supply shocks.

For Pakistan, this exposure is acute. Nearly all of its trade, around 95%, and the entirety of its oil and coal imports arrive by sea. Despite this overwhelming reliance, Pakistan captures only a negligible share of value from ocean-based economic activity, generating roughly US$1.0 billion annually from its blue economy, which accounts for only around 0.4% of its national GDP. This is significantly below its estimated potential, which experts suggest could exceed US$100 billion annually if fully optimised.

This imbalance has direct consequences. Pakistan’s economy remains energy-hungry and import-dependent, with power generation, industry, and transport reliant on continuous inflows of fuel. Any disruption in maritime access, whether caused by conflict, sanctions, insurance restrictions, or route closures, translates almost immediately into higher energy prices, inflationary pressure, and industrial slowdown. In contrast, countries that operate their own container fleets and energy vessels gain a critical buffer. Ships function not only as transport assets but also as floating storage, strategic reserves, and extensions of national infrastructure.

Pakistan’s national flag carrier, the Pakistan National Shipping Corporation, occupies a central but underleveraged position in this equation. As the country’s sole state-backed shipping entity, it operates a small fleet focused mainly on dry and liquid bulk cargo. While modern vessels have increased carrying capacity compared to earlier decades, the absence of container ships and dedicated energy carriers limits both commercial competitiveness and strategic flexibility.

Expanding national shipping to include containerised trade and energy transportation would create skilled employment, develop maritime expertise, and integrate ports more deeply into regional and global value chains

Expanding national shipping to include containerised trade and energy transportation would create skilled employment, develop maritime expertise, and integrate ports more deeply into regional and global value chains

Historically, Pakistan’s shipping presence was far more significant. Several decades ago, dozens of vessels, many privately owned, operated under the national flag, contributing meaningfully to trade control and freight earnings. Over time, however, retirements, underinvestment, and the erosion of private participation reduced the fleet to a fraction of its former strength.

The economic cost of this decline is substantial. Pakistan’s total trade now exceeds US$85 billion annually, yet the vast majority of this cargo is transported by foreign carriers. This dependence results in billions of dollars leaving the country every year in freight payments alone, worsening foreign exchange constraints and limiting reinvestment capacity. More importantly, it leaves national trade flows vulnerable to decisions taken in distant boardrooms or foreign capitals.

Recent global events have exposed this vulnerability with alarming clarity. Disruptions to major maritime corridors have shown how quickly supply chains can unravel. When key passages became unsafe or congested, vessels were forced onto longer routes, adding weeks of delay and millions of dollars in additional costs per voyage. Freight rates surged overnight, insurance premiums spiked, and import-dependent economies absorbed the shock. For Pakistan, these disruptions were not theoretical. Cargo delays translated into higher landed costs for fuel, raw materials, and consumer goods, intensifying pressure on an already fragile economy.

Geopolitical tensions closer to home have further underscored the risks. Restrictions imposed during regional escalations forced shipping lines to reroute or suspend services, directly affecting exports and undermining confidence among international buyers. When foreign carriers withdraw, national trade does not pause; it bleeds. Export containers pile up, delivery commitments are missed, and long-term market share erodes. In such moments, the absence of a nationally controlled container fleet becomes painfully visible.

At the same time, the nature of the blue economy itself is evolving. Beyond shipping, it now encompasses offshore energy, port-led industrialisation, maritime services, ship management, marine technology, and logistics innovation. Countries investing in these areas are using the ocean as a platform for energy transition, food security, and industrial resilience. LNG shipping, in particular, has emerged as a strategic asset as nations shift away from volatile spot markets towards secured long-term supply chains. Without ownership or control over energy vessels, Pakistan remains a price taker in one of the most critical segments of its economy.

The global order is also changing. Trade is no longer governed solely by efficiency and cost optimisation. Resilience, redundancy, and strategic autonomy now shape national decisions. Sanctions regimes, trade restrictions, and selective access to logistics services have become normalised tools of statecraft. In this environment, shipping capacity is power. Countries with national fleets can prioritise essential cargo, negotiate from a position of strength, and protect their economies during crises. Those without must adapt or endure the consequences.

For Pakistan, strengthening maritime capability is not about nostalgia or symbolism. It is about safeguarding energy flows, stabilising trade, retaining foreign exchange, and anchoring the blue economy as a driver of sustainable growth. Expanding national shipping to include containerised trade and energy transportation would create skilled employment, develop maritime expertise, and integrate ports more deeply into regional and global value chains. It would also provide the state with a strategic instrument during periods of disruption, when markets fail, and alliances are tested.

The ocean rewards preparation and punishes neglect. In a world where supply chains are weaponised and energy security defines national resilience, the survival of economies increasingly depends on who controls the ships that move the world. For Pakistan, reclaiming space in its own maritime domain is not merely an economic ambition; it is a strategic necessity dictated by the realities of the new global order.

© The Friday Times