The 2026 Iran War, which finally ended after 40 days with a ceasefire on 8 April 2026, had already demonstrated the failure of conventional military and proxy tactics to ensure the survival of the regime against a determined and modern air attack. Tehran had to review its nuclear options after the successful attacks on highly fortified nuclear sites such as Natanz and Fordow by U.S. and Israeli forces, which had previously been considered “red lines”.

It is too early to say that nuclear acquisition is Iran’s only option, but the war has certainly hastened the need for ultimate deterrence. The present Iranian calculation covers three important, interwoven paths: full weaponisation, negotiated settlement, and improved asymmetric deterrence, and a comprehensive, up-to-date analysis of the risks and rewards is required to determine which is best.

The idea of the North Korean model, one that would make the bomb “irreversible”, is enormously attractive to the Iranian leadership. Despite being isolated and sanctioned by the international community, North Korea has managed to survive long-term by refusing to allow disarmament to be used as a means of securing economic gains or security guarantees.

The war’s biggest blow came when a decapitation strike killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and dozens of top officials, turning the nuclear programme into a matter of “national pride” and a way of “paying homage to our martyrs”. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi emphasised that Iran cannot give up enrichment, describing it as an “achievement of our own scientists”.

But even after the military attacks, analysts broadly agree that Iran still possesses all the essential components required to build a bomb: the material, the dispersed facilities, and the technical know-how. Moreover, Supreme Leader Khamenei has pledged to safeguard Iran’s nuclear and........

© The Friday Times