The geopolitical architecture built around Afghanistan since August 2021 clearly prioritises hard borders, security imperatives and economic connectivity over human rights. The West's attempt to isolate the Taliban has largely failed as regional powers normalise engagement with the Islamic Emirate. Pak-Afghan borders remain shut while India and Russia are embracing Afghanistan. Moscow is also accusing the West of attempting to weaken the Taliban regime.

Five key dynamics shaping Afghanistan's position and their implications for Pakistan deserve dispassionate consideration.

On May 27, Moscow and Kabul signed a military-technical cooperation agreement, the first formal step after the former recognised the Taliban regime nearly a year ago. Sergei Shoigu, Secretary of the Russian Security Council, and Mohammad Yaqoob, the Taliban's Defense Minister, oversaw the signing of the agreement.

The agreement came less than two weeks after Shoigu had declared the Russian intent for a "full-fledged partnership with Kabul" at a Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) ministerial meeting in Bishkek on May 14.

The move marks a realpolitik recalibration rooted in three considerations. First, the Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISIS-K) poses a direct threat to Russian interests in Central Asia and the Afghan Taliban represent a formidable ally against ISIS-K, which Russia believes is drawing western support.

Alexander Bortnikov, director of Russia's Federal Security Service (FSB), for instance, recently accused the British intelligence of conniving with ISKP and its allies to weaken........

© The Express Tribune