Thirteen states from Vermont to Hawaii have written a hard deadline into law: 100 percent carbon-free (CO2-free) or “clean” electricity, most by 2040 or 2045. Lawmakers sold these mandates as a bargain: cheaper power alongside cleaner air. Voters in those states are struggling with ever-increasing electricity bills. Which are increasing faster than non-mandate states.

The metric politicians lean on to make that case is the “levelized cost of energy” (LCOE), which ranks wind and solar as the cheapest sources of generation on the grid. The U.S. Energy Information Administration itself cautions that the ranking is misleading because LCOE reflects the cost to build and run a single generator. It says nothing about whether that generator can deliver power at 6 p.m. on a windless February evening, exactly when a grid needs it most.

Energy analysts, Isaac Orr and Mitch Rolling, answer the question EIA’s own number dodges. Their “Always On Levelized Cost of Energy” (AOLOC) model adds back everything a bare LCOE figure leaves out: backup generation, transmission, overbuilt capacity and the power curtailed to keep........

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