Ongoing problems in the criminal justice system in England and Wales, from overcrowding in prisons to court backlogs, have raised fundamental questions about how and why we punish people.

Advocates for a more rehabilitative, less punitive system often point to Scandinavian prisons as a model for how things could be done better.

My colleagues and I wanted to find out how beliefs about free will and crime may influence different approaches to punishment. In a recent study of 328 people across the UK, Norway and Sweden, we found that the more strongly someone believed in free will – that people freely choose how they behave – the harsher the punishment they favoured. The effect was modest but consistent.

Behind our research is an age-old question: do people commit crimes because they freely choose to, or because their lives are shaped by factors such as upbringing, poverty, trauma, mental health, neurological differences and circumstance? Research suggests that belief in free will is widespread, but that people’s views about choice, causation and responsibility are often more mixed and inconsistent than a simple either/or divide.

Our study, led by recent graduate Haakon Solum, suggests that where people place that balance differs across countries, and shapes what they think people who commit crimes deserve.

The prison system in England and Wales is under acute pressure: a 2025 Public Accounts Committee report described an estate in crisis with........

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