As winter takes hold and more people spend time indoors, respiratory illnesses are expected to begin spreading more widely through communities.

But while the seasonal return of viruses is familiar, New Zealand’s respiratory landscape is still not quite back to normal. Six years after the country closed its borders to keep COVID out, patterns of infection remain different from those seen before the pandemic.

Influenza, COVID and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) were all heavily suppressed by border restrictions, social distancing and other pandemic measures before rebounding as those controls were lifted.

Since then, rates of all three viruses have fluctuated from year to year as immunity from both infection and vaccination has evolved.

Influenza activity is yet to ramp up after an out-of-season surge in late 2025, driven by a fast-spreading variant. RSV has largely returned to its traditional pattern of winter peaks, while coronavirus continues to evolve into new Omicron subvariants.

The result is that respiratory risks remain more complicated than they were before the pandemic. So what does this mean for people weighing up which vaccinations to get this season?

The risk of COVID has also changed much from four or five years ago, when more severe coronavirus variants and major waves were sweeping through communities.

Due to widespread vaccination and previous........

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