As midterm elections near, Democrats enjoy advantages in national “generic ballot” polling, suggesting they may secure majorities in the House of Representative or Senate, if not both chambers.

But the reality is that partisan control on Capitol Hill will be determined by just a handful of competitive House and Senate contests. The Cook Political Report currently classifies only 22 House campaigns and only seven Senate campaigns as toss-ups, where either the Democrat or the Republican has a genuine chance of winning.

By definition, neither party enjoys a clear advantage in these contests, so both will look to augment their base support with the votes of independents.

As a political science scholar focused on voting and elections, I believe that in the last few weeks before Election Day, those voters will feature prominently in campaign strategies.

Independents are dissatisfied

Midterm congressional elections serve as a referendum on the president’s performance.

Presidential approval polls and surveys about the economy indicate that independents do not favor President Donald Trump or the Republican Party.

A September 2026 YouGov survey found that only 23% of independents approve of Trump’s job as president, compared with 79% of Republicans and 2% of Democrats. This continues a steady drop in independents’........

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