The United Arab Emirates (UAE) has announced that on May 1, it will leave both the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and the larger OPEC group. By withdrawing, the UAE will now be able to independently decide how much oil it produces and sells.

This matters – and not just because the UAE is one of the world’s top ten oil producers. The country also has the capacity to increase its output by about one million barrels per day.

So, if the UAE chooses to ramp up production, could it put downward pressure on the price of oil once shipments can resume through the Strait of Hormuz?

With severe geopolitical tensions still disrupting the market, the immediate question is less about when we can expect cheaper oil and more about how the uncertainty feeds into what comes next.

Read more: UAE’s OPEC exit has been long in the works – and may mark the beginning of a Gulf realignment

OPEC was founded in 1960 to “harmonise the petroleum policies of its member countries as part of its efforts to safeguard their interests”. Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and Venezuela were the five founding members.

The Emirate of Abu Dhabi became a member in 1967, and the UAE as a whole remained a member after the country’s federation in 1971. It is currently the third-largest oil producer among........

© The Conversation