COVID-19 changed the course of New Zealand’s political history.

Labour’s 50% of the vote in 2020 came from a huge electoral swing as a reward for the main coalition party’s effective evidence-based policies, and then prime minister Jacinda Ardern’s leadership.

It gave the party the first (and possibly last) single-party majority under the MMP proportional system.

But as the second report of the Royal Commission of Inquiry into COVID-19 says, “New Zealand’s exit from the elimination strategy was difficult, rather than prepared and staged.”

In late 2021, the report adds, “social licence and willingness to comply with restrictions diminished”.

Central decision-makers became risk-averse and didn’t keep up with shifts in public sentiment from late 2021. This contributed to a decline in public confidence and to Labour’s election defeat in 2023.

NZ First’s return to parliament with 6% of the vote in 2023 was aided by voters who had resisted vaccination. In its coalition agreement with National, NZ First negotiated to widen the COVID inquiry to focus on vaccine mandates, lockdowns and testing systems.

While politically contested, this phase two inquiry report is still valuable for what it reveals.

Deep social divisions

Whether one supported the previous government’s pandemic responses or not, everyone has been affected by those policies which now form a big part of our life stories.

It was the........

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