As predicted, the 2026 election was all about the maths. With National winning more electorate seats than its party vote would have delivered, and Te Pāti Māori taking five Māori seats, there is a provisional parliamentary overhang of nine or ten seats.

That means a parliamentary majority requires 65 or 66 seats, which the right bloc has on the provisional results. Even with the Opportunity Party’s provisional seven seats, the left would still not have the numbers.

However, the results are finely poised, and special votes may change the picture once the final count is confirmed on November 27. In the meantime, the overhang means National has lost senior list-only MPs, including former finance minister Nicola Willis.

The........

© The Conversation