The Morgan and YouGov federal polls have the Coalition gaining from One Nation since Angus Taylor replaced Sussan Ley as Liberal leader. Unlike the DemosAU and Fox & Hedgehog polls that I reported Tuesday, these two polls have Labor clearly ahead of the Coalition and One Nation after preferences.

Whereas the combined primary vote for One Nation and the Coalition was 49% in both DemosAU and Fox & Hedgehog, it was just 44.5% in Morgan and 46% in YouGov.

Essential is the other new poll, and that gave the Coalition its first lead over Labor after preferences in a poll since the May 2025 election. Essential’s respondent preferences favour the Coalition more than other polls that use respondent preferences.

After the five federal polls this week, analyst Kevin Bonham’s two-party aggregates that use 2025 election preference flows have Labor leading the Coalition by 53.3–46.7 and One Nation by 53.4–46.6.

A national YouGov poll for Sky News, conducted February 17–24 from a sample of 1,500, gave Labor 29% of the primary vote (down one since the February 3–10 YouGov poll that was taken before the Liberal leadership spill), One Nation 24% (down four), the Coalition 22% (up three), the Greens 13% (up one), independents 6% (up one) and others 6% (steady).

By respondent preferences, Labor led One Nation by 56–44, a one-point gain for Labor. They led the Coalition by 53–47, a one-point gain for........

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