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Adrian Beaumont

Adrian Beaumont

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Labor gains lead in post-budget Newspoll; would be one seat short of majority in YouGov MRP poll

Labor gains lead in post-budget Newspoll; would be one seat short of majority in YouGov MRP poll
previous day 4

Pearls and Irritations

Adrian Beaumont

Labor gains 52–48 lead in Newspoll and Redbridge as poll trend to Labor continues

Labor gains 52–48 lead in Newspoll and Redbridge as poll trend to Labor continues

The latest Newspoll continues the movement towards Labor, and while Anthony Albanese’s approval rating remains low he still leads as preferred prime...

previous day 4

The Conversation

Adrian Beaumont

Labor leads in three recent national polls, four weeks from the election

Labor leads in three recent national polls, four weeks from the election

While the polls remain tight, Labor is ahead after the first week of campaigning.

04.04.2025 10

The Conversation

Adrian Beaumont

Labor gains lead in post-budget Newspoll; would be one seat short of majority in YouGov MRP poll

Labor gains lead in post-budget Newspoll; would be one seat short of majority in YouGov MRP poll

The gains for Labor are probably in spite of a poorly rated federal budget.

30.03.2025 2

The Conversation

Adrian Beaumont

Labor regains poll lead as election called for 3 May

Labor regains poll lead as election called for 3 May
28.03.2025 10

Pearls and Irritations

Adrian Beaumont

Labor regains poll lead as election called for May 3

Labor regains poll lead as election called for May 3

With a five-week campaign ahead, the polls have swing back in favour of Labor - but it’s still very close.

28.03.2025 10

The Conversation

Adrian Beaumont

Labor gains big lead in a Morgan poll, but drops back in YouGov

Labor gains big lead in a Morgan poll, but drops back in YouGov

The latest Morgan poll will be heartening for the government ahead of a federal election - but it may be a pro-Labor outlier.

24.03.2025 20

The Conversation

Adrian Beaumont

Gains for Labor as it leads in three of past five polls

18.03.2025 20

The New Daily

Adrian Beaumont

Gains for Labor as they lead in three of last five polls

Gains for Labor as they lead in three of last five polls

Anthony Albanese is improving in the preferred prime minister stakes, but the overall margins remain tight.

17.03.2025 10

The Conversation

Adrian Beaumont

Anthony Albanese gains in Newspoll, but the race remains neck-and -neck

While the Coalition leads in three out of the four major polls over the last week, Labor has made up some ground.

10.03.2025 10

The Conversation

Adrian Beaumont

Labor wins third successive landslide in WA election

While Labor had a big fall in its primary vote since winning 59.9% in 2021, this fall didn’t go directly to the Liberals and Nationals.

09.03.2025 10

The Conversation

Adrian Beaumont

Two polls predict a thumping victory for Labor in WA election, the first with a reformed upper house

After achieving the biggest parliamentary majority in Australian history in 2021, polls predict Labor will hold onto power comfortably.

07.03.2025 20

The Conversation

Adrian Beaumont

Labor gains in Redbridge poll of marginal seats and seizes lead in a Morgan poll

Polls have improved for the Labor government ahead of the election - but Victoria still looks like a potential disaster zone for them.

03.03.2025 10

The Conversation

Adrian Beaumont

Labor crashes to a 55–45 deficit in Resolve despite interest rate cut

In a blow to the Albanese government, the latest polling has the two-party preferred gap widening, and Labor headed for defeat.

24.02.2025 10

The Conversation

Adrian Beaumont

Coalition leading narrowly in four polls and would likely win an election held now

Results from NewsPoll, Morgan, YouGov and RedBridge all put the Coalition ahead.

17.02.2025 50

The Conversation

Adrian Beaumont

Victorian byelections: Liberals gain Prahran from Greens and Labor ahead in Werribee

Voters punished the Allan Labor government in Werribee, but did not fully embrace the Liberals, either.

09.02.2025 10

The Conversation

Adrian Beaumont

WA Labor has thumping Newspoll lead a month before election; federal Labor improves

Labor is in a strong position ahead of the WA election, while federal Labor has also received some better news from the latest polls.

07.02.2025 5

The Conversation

Adrian Beaumont

Albanese records worst Newspoll ratings this term; Victorian Labor’s primary plunges

According to the latest polls, if an election were held now, Labor would probably lose.

27.01.2025 10

The Conversation

Adrian Beaumont

Coalition has lead in most polls as Dutton gains five-point preferred PM lead in Resolve

With an election due by May, latest polls have good news for the Coalition and bad news for the prime minister.

23.01.2025 8

The Conversation

Adrian Beaumont

Coalition still ahead in latest polls, but some promising news for Labor

Latest polls are a mixed bag, but show cost of living pressures are still biting the Albanese government.

20.01.2025 10

The Conversation

Adrian Beaumont

Labor and Albanese end 2024 in worst poll position this term

A national Essential poll , conducted December 11–15 from a sample of 1,151, gave the Coalition a 48–47 lead including undecided, unchanged from...

18.12.2024 10

The Conversation

Adrian Beaumont

Republicans soared in the recent US elections, but Democrats have reasons for optimism for 2026

This article is based on a presentation by the author to the Electoral Regulations Forum. At the November 5 US presidential election, Republican...

12.12.2024 6

The Conversation

Adrian Beaumont

Newspoll returns to a tie after Coalition leads, but Labor has worst result this term in Resolve

A national Newspoll, conducted December 2–6 from a sample of 1,258, had a 50–50 tie, a one-point gain for Labor since the previous Newspoll in...

09.12.2024 7

The Conversation

Adrian Beaumont

Under-16 social media ban supported by 77% as economic sentiment lifts

A national YouGov poll, conducted November 15–21 from a sample of 1,515, had a 50–50 tie, unchanged from the previous YouGov poll in September....

02.12.2024 10

The Conversation

Adrian Beaumont

South Australian Labor gains Black at byelection with big swing

A byelection occurred on Saturday in the South Australian Liberal-held state seat of Black. With all election day votes counted, Labor gained Black...

17.11.2024 5

The Conversation

Adrian Beaumont

Coalition retains narrow Newspoll lead as Dutton gains; where Democrats may have erred in US election

A national Newspoll, conducted November 4–8 from a sample of 1,261, gave the Coalition a 51–49 lead, unchanged since the previous Newspoll in early...

11.11.2024 6

The Conversation

Adrian Beaumont

Further US election analysis: Hispanics and young men swung big to Trump

Republican Donald Trump won the United States presidential election by 312 electoral votes to 226 for Democrat Kamala Harris. Trump carried the...

08.11.2024 5

The Conversation

Adrian Beaumont

Donald Trump poised to become next US president, likely sweeping all the seven key states

Donald Trump is set to accomplish the rare feat of winning the US presidential election after losing an earlier one. The New York Times Needle...

06.11.2024 10

The Conversation

Adrian Beaumont

US presidential election remains a toss-up , and a guide to US election day in Australia

The United States presidential election will be held Tuesday, with results coming in from Wednesday morning AEDT. I have a guide to Wednesday below...

04.11.2024 8

The Conversation

Adrian Beaumont

Trump’s slight lead in Pennsylvania could give him Electoral College win; Biden a drag on Harris

The United States presidential election will be held next Tuesday, with results coming in Wednesday AEDT. In analyst Nate Silver’s aggregate of...

31.10.2024 10

The Conversation

Adrian Beaumont

US presidential election remains very close; late counting in Australian elections

The United States presidential election will be held on November 5. In analyst Nate Silver’s aggregate of national polls, Democrat Kamala Harris...

28.10.2024 10

The Conversation

Adrian Beaumont

LNP wins Queensland election, likely with a clear majority

With 45% of enrolled voters counted in today’s Queensland state election, The Poll Bludger’s results have the Liberal National Party (LNP) winning...

26.10.2024 2

The Conversation

Adrian Beaumont

LNP lead reduced as Queensland election approaches; US election remains very close

The Queensland state election is this Saturday, with polls closing at 7pm AEDT. There are 93 single-member seats, with Queensland having no upper...

23.10.2024 3

The Conversation

Adrian Beaumont

Labor retains office at ACT election; US presidential election remains on a knife’s edge

The Labor Party has won a seventh consecutive ACT election. The ACT uses the Hare Clark proportional representation method with five five-member...

20.10.2024 3

The Conversation

Adrian Beaumont

Kamala Harris dips in key states, making US election contest a toss-up

The United States presidential election will be held on November 5. In analyst Nate Silver’s aggregate of national polls, Democrat Kamala Harris...

14.10.2024 10

The Conversation

Adrian Beaumont

Coalition seizes Newspoll lead, but other polls have Labor improving

A national Newspoll, conducted October 7–11 from a sample of 1,258, gave the Coalition a 51–49 lead, a one-point gain for the Coalition since the...

14.10.2024 3

The Conversation

Adrian Beaumont

Kamala Harris maintains narrow lead in key states in US presidential race

The United States presidential election will be held on November 5. In analyst Nate Silver’s aggregate of national polls, Democrat Kamala Harris...

07.10.2024 20

The Conversation

Adrian Beaumont

Kamala Harris the slight favourite to win US election as she narrowly leads in key states

The US presidential election will be held on November 5. In analyst Nate Silver’s aggregate of national polls, Democrat Kamala Harris leads...

30.09.2024 10

The Conversation

Adrian Beaumont

Harris’ post-debate gains sustained in US polls, but Republicans likely to gain Senate control

The United States presidential election will be held on November 5. In analyst Nate Silver’s aggregate of national polls, Democrat Kamala Harris...

23.09.2024 8

The Conversation

Adrian Beaumont

Federal Newspoll still tied but Albanese’s ratings up; Queensland Newspoll has big LNP lead

A national Newspoll, conducted September 16–20 from a sample of 1,249, had a 50–50 tie for the third consecutive time. Since the last Newspoll...

23.09.2024 4

The Conversation

Adrian Beaumont

Harris gains in post-debate US national polls, but will her gains be sustained?

The United States presidential election will be held on November 5. In analyst Nate Silver’s aggregate of national polls, Democrat Kamala Harris...

18.09.2024 6

The Conversation

Adrian Beaumont

New polling: half of Australians want gambling ads banned entirely; LNP has big Queensland lead

A national Resolve poll for Nine newspapers, conducted September 3–7 from a sample of 1,614 people, gave Labor a 51–49% lead using 2022 election...

12.09.2024 5

The Conversation

Adrian Beaumont

Harris’ lead dips in national US polls and it’s very close in the key states

The United States presidential election will be held on November 5. In analyst Nate Silver’s aggregate of national polls, Democrat Kamala Harris...

09.09.2024 3

The Conversation

Adrian Beaumont

Newspoll remains tied at 50–50, but Albanese’s net approval slumps

A national Newspoll, conducted August 26–30 from a sample of 1,263, had a 50–50 two-party tie between Labor and the Coalition, unchanged from the...

02.09.2024 4

The Conversation

Adrian Beaumont

Harris’ win probability falls slightly after Democratic convention and Kennedy withdrawal

The United States presidential election will be held on November 5. In analyst Nate Silver’s aggregate of national polls, Democrat Kamala Harris...

30.08.2024 4

The Conversation

Adrian Beaumont

Harris gains in US polls during Democratic convention; Labor thumped in NT election

The United States presidential election will be held on November 5. In analyst Nate Silver’s aggregate of national polls, Democrat Kamala Harris...

25.08.2024 20

The Conversation

Adrian Beaumont

Kamala Harris’ polls surge stalls ahead of Democratic National Convention

The US presidential election will be held on November 5. In analyst Nate Silver’s aggregate of national polls, Democrat Kamala Harris leads...

19.08.2024 10

The Conversation

Adrian Beaumont

Harris’ lead over Trump continues to increase in US national and swing state polls

The United States presidential election will be held on November 5. In analyst Nate Silver’s aggregate of national polls, Democrat Kamala Harris...

14.08.2024 20

The Conversation

Adrian Beaumont

Labor still struggling in polls as Newspoll tied

A national Newspoll, conducted August 5–9 from a sample of 1,266, had Labor and the Coalition tied at 50–50, a one-point gain for the Coalition...

12.08.2024 2

The Conversation

Adrian Beaumont

Kamala Harris edges ahead of Donald Trump in national polls for US election

The United States presidential election will be held on November 5. Election analyst Nate Silver’s national poll aggregate has Democratic nominee...

05.08.2024 50

The Conversation

Adrian Beaumont