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Adrian Beaumont

Adrian Beaumont

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Late counting continues in several seats, with Goldstein and Melbourne among those too close to call

Some contests are so close it may be some time before a result is confirmed.

latest 0

The Conversation

Adrian Beaumont

Labor makes Senate gains, and left-wing parties will hold a Senate majority

Labor makes Senate gains, and left-wing parties will hold a Senate majority

Labor’s huge win in the House of Representatives looks like it will be mirrored by an improvement in their Senate representation too.

yesterday 30

The Conversation

Adrian Beaumont

Labor wins surprise landslide, returned with a thumping majority

Labor wins surprise landslide, returned with a thumping majority

Despite strong polling in Labor’s favour throughout the campaign, most numbers understated the extent of the swing.

previous day 10

The Conversation

Adrian Beaumont

Major YouGov poll has Labor easily winning a majority of seats in election

Major YouGov poll has Labor easily winning a majority of seats in election
friday 7

Pearls and Irritations

Adrian Beaumont

Final polls give Labor a clear lead before the election

Final polls give Labor a clear lead before the election

Polls also show Anthony Albanese is preferred PM over Peter Dutton, but both leaders have poor net approval ratings.

friday 30

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Adrian Beaumont

Major YouGov poll has Labor easily winning a majority of seats in election

Major YouGov poll has Labor easily winning a majority of seats in election

YouGov’s central forecast is Labor winning 84 of the 150 lower house seats for an 18-seat majority.

01.05.2025 10

The Conversation

Adrian Beaumont

Labor maintains clear lead in all polls and is likely to win election

Labor maintains clear lead in all polls and is likely to win election

With just days to go until the election, four polls have the Labor party ahead on a two-party preferred basis.

29.04.2025 4

The Conversation

Adrian Beaumont

Centre-left Liberals make stunning comeback to win Canadian election

Centre-left Liberals make stunning comeback to win Canadian election

The Liberals had been poised for a heavy defeat – before the election of Donald Trump across the border.

29.04.2025 30

The Conversation

Adrian Beaumont

Newspoll shows Labor’s lead steady at 52–48

Newspoll shows Labor’s lead steady at 52–48

With just five full days left until the May 3 election and early voting in progress, Labor remains the favourite to win, according to the polls.

27.04.2025 7

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Adrian Beaumont

Labor takes large leads in YouGov and Morgan polls as surge continues

Labor takes large leads in YouGov and Morgan polls as surge continues

With the final week of the campaign about to begin, Labor’s advantage in the polls continues.

25.04.2025 10

The Conversation

Adrian Beaumont

Preference deals can decide the outcome of a seat in an election – but not always

Preference deals can decide the outcome of a seat in an election – but not always

While there is always much interest in preference deals, many voters simply do their own thing at the ballot box.

24.04.2025 5

The Conversation

Adrian Beaumont

After stunning comeback, centre-left Liberals likely to win majority of seats at Canadian election

In January, the governing Liberals were more than 20 points behind in the polls, but with an election just days away, they’re now well ahead.

23.04.2025 40

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Adrian Beaumont

Newspoll steady as both leaders’ ratings fall; Labor surging in poll of marginal seats

The latest Newspoll has Labor consolidating its recent gains ahead of the May 3 election.

20.04.2025 5

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Adrian Beaumont

Labor’s poll surge continues in YouGov, but it’s barely ahead in Freshwater

With just a fortnight until the federal election, polls continue to show a boost in support for Labor, although to varying degrees.

18.04.2025 5

The Conversation

Adrian Beaumont

Labor’s poll surge continues in YouGov, but they’re barely ahead in Freshwater

With just a fortnight until the federal election, continue to show a. boost in support for Labor, although to varying degrees.

18.04.2025 10

The Conversation

Adrian Beaumont

Labor and the Greens likely to gain Senate seats at the election

There will be a half Senate election on May 3, with the all-important balance of power in play.

16.04.2025 10

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Adrian Beaumont

Labor surges to 7-point lead in Resolve poll, and has sizeable leads in two other national polls

Mid-way through the election campaign, the Labor leader’s popularity has also surged.

15.04.2025 10

The Conversation

Adrian Beaumont

Newspoll steady but Albanese’s ratings jump; swing to Labor in marginal seats

While the two-party preferred numbers are steady, the prime minister’s approval rating has improved, as have Labor’s chances in marginal seats.

13.04.2025 2

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Adrian Beaumont

Labor gains 5-point lead in a YouGov poll, taken during Trump tariff chaos

Amid global turmoil and with two weeks of the election campaign done, Labor is enjoying a bump in the polls.

11.04.2025 5

The Conversation

Adrian Beaumont

Labor gains lead in post-budget Newspoll; would be one seat short of majority in YouGov MRP poll

06.04.2025 8

Pearls and Irritations

Adrian Beaumont

Labor gains 52–48 lead in Newspoll and Redbridge as poll trend to Labor continues

The latest Newspoll continues the movement towards Labor, and while Anthony Albanese’s approval rating remains low he still leads as preferred prime...

06.04.2025 6

The Conversation

Adrian Beaumont

Labor leads in three recent national polls, four weeks from the election

While the polls remain tight, Labor is ahead after the first week of campaigning.

04.04.2025 10

The Conversation

Adrian Beaumont

Labor gains lead in post-budget Newspoll; would be one seat short of majority in YouGov MRP poll

The gains for Labor are probably in spite of a poorly rated federal budget.

30.03.2025 2

The Conversation

Adrian Beaumont

Labor regains poll lead as election called for 3 May

28.03.2025 10

Pearls and Irritations

Adrian Beaumont

Labor regains poll lead as election called for May 3

With a five-week campaign ahead, the polls have swing back in favour of Labor - but it’s still very close.

28.03.2025 10

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Adrian Beaumont

Labor gains big lead in a Morgan poll, but drops back in YouGov

The latest Morgan poll will be heartening for the government ahead of a federal election - but it may be a pro-Labor outlier.

24.03.2025 20

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Adrian Beaumont

Gains for Labor as it leads in three of past five polls

18.03.2025 20

The New Daily

Adrian Beaumont

Gains for Labor as they lead in three of last five polls

Anthony Albanese is improving in the preferred prime minister stakes, but the overall margins remain tight.

17.03.2025 10

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Adrian Beaumont

Anthony Albanese gains in Newspoll, but the race remains neck-and -neck

While the Coalition leads in three out of the four major polls over the last week, Labor has made up some ground.

10.03.2025 10

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Adrian Beaumont

Labor wins third successive landslide in WA election

While Labor had a big fall in its primary vote since winning 59.9% in 2021, this fall didn’t go directly to the Liberals and Nationals.

09.03.2025 10

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Adrian Beaumont

Two polls predict a thumping victory for Labor in WA election, the first with a reformed upper house

After achieving the biggest parliamentary majority in Australian history in 2021, polls predict Labor will hold onto power comfortably.

07.03.2025 20

The Conversation

Adrian Beaumont

Labor gains in Redbridge poll of marginal seats and seizes lead in a Morgan poll

Polls have improved for the Labor government ahead of the election - but Victoria still looks like a potential disaster zone for them.

03.03.2025 10

The Conversation

Adrian Beaumont

Labor crashes to a 55–45 deficit in Resolve despite interest rate cut

In a blow to the Albanese government, the latest polling has the two-party preferred gap widening, and Labor headed for defeat.

24.02.2025 10

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Adrian Beaumont

Coalition leading narrowly in four polls and would likely win an election held now

Results from NewsPoll, Morgan, YouGov and RedBridge all put the Coalition ahead.

17.02.2025 50

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Adrian Beaumont

Victorian byelections: Liberals gain Prahran from Greens and Labor ahead in Werribee

Voters punished the Allan Labor government in Werribee, but did not fully embrace the Liberals, either.

09.02.2025 10

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Adrian Beaumont

WA Labor has thumping Newspoll lead a month before election; federal Labor improves

Labor is in a strong position ahead of the WA election, while federal Labor has also received some better news from the latest polls.

07.02.2025 5

The Conversation

Adrian Beaumont

Albanese records worst Newspoll ratings this term; Victorian Labor’s primary plunges

According to the latest polls, if an election were held now, Labor would probably lose.

27.01.2025 10

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Adrian Beaumont

Coalition has lead in most polls as Dutton gains five-point preferred PM lead in Resolve

With an election due by May, latest polls have good news for the Coalition and bad news for the prime minister.

23.01.2025 8

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Adrian Beaumont

Coalition still ahead in latest polls, but some promising news for Labor

Latest polls are a mixed bag, but show cost of living pressures are still biting the Albanese government.

20.01.2025 10

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Adrian Beaumont

Labor and Albanese end 2024 in worst poll position this term

A national Essential poll , conducted December 11–15 from a sample of 1,151, gave the Coalition a 48–47 lead including undecided, unchanged from...

18.12.2024 10

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Adrian Beaumont

Republicans soared in the recent US elections, but Democrats have reasons for optimism for 2026

This article is based on a presentation by the author to the Electoral Regulations Forum. At the November 5 US presidential election, Republican...

12.12.2024 6

The Conversation

Adrian Beaumont

Newspoll returns to a tie after Coalition leads, but Labor has worst result this term in Resolve

A national Newspoll, conducted December 2–6 from a sample of 1,258, had a 50–50 tie, a one-point gain for Labor since the previous Newspoll in...

09.12.2024 7

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Adrian Beaumont

Under-16 social media ban supported by 77% as economic sentiment lifts

A national YouGov poll, conducted November 15–21 from a sample of 1,515, had a 50–50 tie, unchanged from the previous YouGov poll in September....

02.12.2024 10

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Adrian Beaumont

South Australian Labor gains Black at byelection with big swing

A byelection occurred on Saturday in the South Australian Liberal-held state seat of Black. With all election day votes counted, Labor gained Black...

17.11.2024 5

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Adrian Beaumont

Coalition retains narrow Newspoll lead as Dutton gains; where Democrats may have erred in US election

A national Newspoll, conducted November 4–8 from a sample of 1,261, gave the Coalition a 51–49 lead, unchanged since the previous Newspoll in early...

11.11.2024 6

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Adrian Beaumont

Further US election analysis: Hispanics and young men swung big to Trump

Republican Donald Trump won the United States presidential election by 312 electoral votes to 226 for Democrat Kamala Harris. Trump carried the...

08.11.2024 5

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Adrian Beaumont

Donald Trump poised to become next US president, likely sweeping all the seven key states

Donald Trump is set to accomplish the rare feat of winning the US presidential election after losing an earlier one. The New York Times Needle...

06.11.2024 10

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Adrian Beaumont

US presidential election remains a toss-up , and a guide to US election day in Australia

The United States presidential election will be held Tuesday, with results coming in from Wednesday morning AEDT. I have a guide to Wednesday below...

04.11.2024 8

The Conversation

Adrian Beaumont

Trump’s slight lead in Pennsylvania could give him Electoral College win; Biden a drag on Harris

The United States presidential election will be held next Tuesday, with results coming in Wednesday AEDT. In analyst Nate Silver’s aggregate of...

31.10.2024 10

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Adrian Beaumont

US presidential election remains very close; late counting in Australian elections

The United States presidential election will be held on November 5. In analyst Nate Silver’s aggregate of national polls, Democrat Kamala Harris...

28.10.2024 10

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Adrian Beaumont