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Adrian Beaumont

Adrian Beaumont

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Labor gains in Redbridge poll of marginal seats and seizes lead in a Morgan poll

Polls have improved for the Labor government ahead of the election - but Victoria still looks like a potential disaster zone for them.

latest 20

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Adrian Beaumont

Labor crashes to a 55–45 deficit in Resolve despite interest rate cut

Labor crashes to a 55–45 deficit in Resolve despite interest rate cut

In a blow to the Albanese government, the latest polling has the two-party preferred gap widening, and Labor headed for defeat.

24.02.2025 10

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Adrian Beaumont

Coalition leading narrowly in four polls and would likely win an election held now

Coalition leading narrowly in four polls and would likely win an election held now

Results from NewsPoll, Morgan, YouGov and RedBridge all put the Coalition ahead.

17.02.2025 50

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Adrian Beaumont

Victorian byelections: Liberals gain Prahran from Greens and Labor ahead in Werribee

Victorian byelections: Liberals gain Prahran from Greens and Labor ahead in Werribee

Voters punished the Allan Labor government in Werribee, but did not fully embrace the Liberals, either.

09.02.2025 10

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Adrian Beaumont

WA Labor has thumping Newspoll lead a month before election; federal Labor improves

Labor is in a strong position ahead of the WA election, while federal Labor has also received some better news from the latest polls.

07.02.2025 5

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Adrian Beaumont

Albanese records worst Newspoll ratings this term; Victorian Labor’s primary plunges

According to the latest polls, if an election were held now, Labor would probably lose.

27.01.2025 10

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Adrian Beaumont

Coalition has lead in most polls as Dutton gains five-point preferred PM lead in Resolve

With an election due by May, latest polls have good news for the Coalition and bad news for the prime minister.

23.01.2025 8

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Adrian Beaumont

Coalition still ahead in latest polls, but some promising news for Labor

Latest polls are a mixed bag, but show cost of living pressures are still biting the Albanese government.

20.01.2025 10

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Adrian Beaumont

Labor and Albanese end 2024 in worst poll position this term

A national Essential poll , conducted December 11–15 from a sample of 1,151, gave the Coalition a 48–47 lead including undecided, unchanged from...

18.12.2024 10

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Adrian Beaumont

Republicans soared in the recent US elections, but Democrats have reasons for optimism for 2026

This article is based on a presentation by the author to the Electoral Regulations Forum. At the November 5 US presidential election, Republican...

12.12.2024 6

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Adrian Beaumont

Newspoll returns to a tie after Coalition leads, but Labor has worst result this term in Resolve

A national Newspoll, conducted December 2–6 from a sample of 1,258, had a 50–50 tie, a one-point gain for Labor since the previous Newspoll in...

09.12.2024 7

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Adrian Beaumont

Under-16 social media ban supported by 77% as economic sentiment lifts

A national YouGov poll, conducted November 15–21 from a sample of 1,515, had a 50–50 tie, unchanged from the previous YouGov poll in September....

02.12.2024 10

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Adrian Beaumont

South Australian Labor gains Black at byelection with big swing

A byelection occurred on Saturday in the South Australian Liberal-held state seat of Black. With all election day votes counted, Labor gained Black...

17.11.2024 3

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Adrian Beaumont

Coalition retains narrow Newspoll lead as Dutton gains; where Democrats may have erred in US election

A national Newspoll, conducted November 4–8 from a sample of 1,261, gave the Coalition a 51–49 lead, unchanged since the previous Newspoll in early...

11.11.2024 6

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Adrian Beaumont

Further US election analysis: Hispanics and young men swung big to Trump

Republican Donald Trump won the United States presidential election by 312 electoral votes to 226 for Democrat Kamala Harris. Trump carried the...

08.11.2024 5

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Adrian Beaumont

Donald Trump poised to become next US president, likely sweeping all the seven key states

Donald Trump is set to accomplish the rare feat of winning the US presidential election after losing an earlier one. The New York Times Needle...

06.11.2024 10

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Adrian Beaumont

US presidential election remains a toss-up , and a guide to US election day in Australia

The United States presidential election will be held Tuesday, with results coming in from Wednesday morning AEDT. I have a guide to Wednesday below...

04.11.2024 8

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Adrian Beaumont

Trump’s slight lead in Pennsylvania could give him Electoral College win; Biden a drag on Harris

The United States presidential election will be held next Tuesday, with results coming in Wednesday AEDT. In analyst Nate Silver’s aggregate of...

31.10.2024 10

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Adrian Beaumont

US presidential election remains very close; late counting in Australian elections

The United States presidential election will be held on November 5. In analyst Nate Silver’s aggregate of national polls, Democrat Kamala Harris...

28.10.2024 2

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Adrian Beaumont

LNP wins Queensland election, likely with a clear majority

With 45% of enrolled voters counted in today’s Queensland state election, The Poll Bludger’s results have the Liberal National Party (LNP) winning...

26.10.2024 2

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Adrian Beaumont

LNP lead reduced as Queensland election approaches; US election remains very close

The Queensland state election is this Saturday, with polls closing at 7pm AEDT. There are 93 single-member seats, with Queensland having no upper...

23.10.2024 3

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Adrian Beaumont

Labor retains office at ACT election; US presidential election remains on a knife’s edge

The Labor Party has won a seventh consecutive ACT election. The ACT uses the Hare Clark proportional representation method with five five-member...

20.10.2024 2

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Adrian Beaumont

Kamala Harris dips in key states, making US election contest a toss-up

The United States presidential election will be held on November 5. In analyst Nate Silver’s aggregate of national polls, Democrat Kamala Harris...

14.10.2024 10

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Adrian Beaumont

Coalition seizes Newspoll lead, but other polls have Labor improving

A national Newspoll, conducted October 7–11 from a sample of 1,258, gave the Coalition a 51–49 lead, a one-point gain for the Coalition since the...

14.10.2024 3

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Adrian Beaumont

Kamala Harris maintains narrow lead in key states in US presidential race

The United States presidential election will be held on November 5. In analyst Nate Silver’s aggregate of national polls, Democrat Kamala Harris...

07.10.2024 20

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Adrian Beaumont

Kamala Harris the slight favourite to win US election as she narrowly leads in key states

The US presidential election will be held on November 5. In analyst Nate Silver’s aggregate of national polls, Democrat Kamala Harris leads...

30.09.2024 10

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Adrian Beaumont

Harris’ post-debate gains sustained in US polls, but Republicans likely to gain Senate control

The United States presidential election will be held on November 5. In analyst Nate Silver’s aggregate of national polls, Democrat Kamala Harris...

23.09.2024 8

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Adrian Beaumont

Federal Newspoll still tied but Albanese’s ratings up; Queensland Newspoll has big LNP lead

A national Newspoll, conducted September 16–20 from a sample of 1,249, had a 50–50 tie for the third consecutive time. Since the last Newspoll...

23.09.2024 4

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Adrian Beaumont

Harris gains in post-debate US national polls, but will her gains be sustained?

The United States presidential election will be held on November 5. In analyst Nate Silver’s aggregate of national polls, Democrat Kamala Harris...

18.09.2024 6

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Adrian Beaumont

New polling: half of Australians want gambling ads banned entirely; LNP has big Queensland lead

A national Resolve poll for Nine newspapers, conducted September 3–7 from a sample of 1,614 people, gave Labor a 51–49% lead using 2022 election...

12.09.2024 5

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Adrian Beaumont

Harris’ lead dips in national US polls and it’s very close in the key states

The United States presidential election will be held on November 5. In analyst Nate Silver’s aggregate of national polls, Democrat Kamala Harris...

09.09.2024 3

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Adrian Beaumont

Newspoll remains tied at 50–50, but Albanese’s net approval slumps

A national Newspoll, conducted August 26–30 from a sample of 1,263, had a 50–50 two-party tie between Labor and the Coalition, unchanged from the...

02.09.2024 4

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Adrian Beaumont

Harris’ win probability falls slightly after Democratic convention and Kennedy withdrawal

The United States presidential election will be held on November 5. In analyst Nate Silver’s aggregate of national polls, Democrat Kamala Harris...

30.08.2024 4

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Adrian Beaumont

Harris gains in US polls during Democratic convention; Labor thumped in NT election

The United States presidential election will be held on November 5. In analyst Nate Silver’s aggregate of national polls, Democrat Kamala Harris...

25.08.2024 20

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Adrian Beaumont

Kamala Harris’ polls surge stalls ahead of Democratic National Convention

The US presidential election will be held on November 5. In analyst Nate Silver’s aggregate of national polls, Democrat Kamala Harris leads...

19.08.2024 10

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Adrian Beaumont

Harris’ lead over Trump continues to increase in US national and swing state polls

The United States presidential election will be held on November 5. In analyst Nate Silver’s aggregate of national polls, Democrat Kamala Harris...

14.08.2024 20

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Adrian Beaumont

Labor still struggling in polls as Newspoll tied

A national Newspoll, conducted August 5–9 from a sample of 1,266, had Labor and the Coalition tied at 50–50, a one-point gain for the Coalition...

12.08.2024 2

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Adrian Beaumont

Kamala Harris edges ahead of Donald Trump in national polls for US election

The United States presidential election will be held on November 5. Election analyst Nate Silver’s national poll aggregate has Democratic nominee...

05.08.2024 50

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Adrian Beaumont

Trump marginally ahead of Harris in US national polls, but Harris improves from Biden’s polls

The United States election will be held on November 5. It’s been a week since President Joe Biden withdrew from the presidential contest and...

29.07.2024 10

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Adrian Beaumont

Can Kamala Harris win the US presidency after Joe Biden’s withdrawal? Here’s what the polls say

The United States election will be held on November 5. On Sunday US time, President Joe Biden withdrew from the presidential election contest and...

22.07.2024 2

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Adrian Beaumont

Labor has narrow Newspoll lead but behind in other polls; Labor doomed in Queensland

A national Newspoll, conducted July 15–19 from a sample of 1,258, gave Labor a 51–49 lead, unchanged from the previous Newspoll, three weeks ago....

22.07.2024 70

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Adrian Beaumont