Don’t blame Ukraine: Prices go up and up, thanks to Trump’s wars

October 13, 2026 — 12:08pm

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Donald Trump’s “diesel-for-sanctions” deal with Vladimir Putin is an indication of how desperate he has become in the lead-up to next month’s midterm elections. Rather than seeking to shift blame for his polling woes to Ukraine, he should look in the mirror.

When the latest inflation data is released on Wednesday morning in the US, it is expected to show that the inflation rate in the world’s largest economy rose again in September, adding to the cost-of-living pressures that are the key issue in the midterms.

The consensus among US economists is that headline inflation will have risen from August’s 3.4 per cent to 3.6 per cent or 3.7 per cent, with “core” inflation (excluding energy and food costs) either steady or edging up from 2.5 per cent to 2.4 per cent.

That disparity between headline and core rates points to the major factor in the persistently high US inflation rate – the surge in gasoline and diesel prices that has occurred as a result of Trump’s decision to go to war in the Middle East.

The day before the February attacks by the US and Israel on Iran, oil was trading at $US70 a barrel. Today it is above $US106 a barrel.

US gasoline prices average $US2.28 ($3.27) a gallon on the eve of the attacks. Today, they average $US4.35 ($6.24) a gallon.

Diesel cost, on average, about $3.80 a gallon on February 27. Today, it is $US6.27 a gallon.

As has often been the case with Trump, his ego and impulses – in this case the desire to bend the Fed to his will, or in the war with Iran, his expectations of an easy and glorious victory – undermine his ambitions.

Those increased costs not only feed directly into households’ costs of living, but they also, over time, bleed into the wider economy as the delayed impact on transport costs and agricultural production flows through and impacts consumer prices and corporate margins.

When the members of the Federal Reserve Bank’s Open Market Committee meet in a fortnight to decide whether to raise their policy rate for a second successive meeting, however, they won’t just be considering the........

© The Age