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Texas Gov. Greg Abbott sounded like a new man in late August during an interview with ABC News. After spending years luring tech companies to Texas—following a deal with Google last year, he proclaimed Texas would be the “epicenter” of A.I. development—his state instead became the epicenter of a red-hot backlash as frustration with data centers peaked with the public. Their message had been received, at least for the remainder of election season: Abbott was pressing pause on data centers.

“They basically dug their own grave,” Abbott said to ABC, blaming tech companies for moving too fast without consulting local stakeholders. “That’s why they got the backlash they deserve.”

If Abbott sounds like a new man, it is because he finds himself in a new circumstance: a competitive election. Over the course of the three gubernatorial races, three attorney general races, and the single state Supreme Court election Abbott has run in, he’s never won by less than 11 points. Now, in his run for a fourth term against Austin Democratic state Rep. Gina Hinojosa, Abbott’s lead has been trimmed to a couple of points in polling average, while election analysts continue to move their ratings of the race in Democrats’ direction.

What gives? Certainly the atrocious political environment for Republicans across the board this year serves as the foundation for a close race. But as the data center walk-back demonstrated, some of Abbott’s usual methods just aren’t landing in this more populist environment. Abbott, like Gov. Rick Perry before him, has hung his hat on corporate relocations, offering incentives for companies to move from stiflingly regulated states like California to Texas. No doubt, it has generated quite a bit of wealth and growth for Texas this century. But with voters furious over the state of the economy, Hinojosa has taken up a coherent message for these prime political conditions: What has all this done for me?

“The exact thing that he brags about is now an indictment on him,” Hinojosa told me in an August interview. “People do not think corporations should be getting tax breaks to come........

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