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With the primaries mostly behind us, general-election season is here. We at the Slatest have been covering the midterms for a while, but getting wrapped up in individual races risks overlooking the more important question: Which party will control Congress once the dust has settled? It’s a big topic, so we’re taking it one chamber at a time. Later this week we’ll consider the Senate, but today we’re focusing on the House.

OK, let’s start with the obvious: Which party is going to win?

I don’t have a crystal ball, but history is instructive. In the modern era, the sitting president’s party almost always loses House seats in midterms. The opposite has happened only a few times: during the depths of the Great Depression, after Republicans overreached by moving to impeach Bill Clinton, and after the Sept. 11 attacks. On average, over the past 92 years of midterms, the party in power has lost 27 seats. Republicans are currently sitting on a single-digit majority.

Doesn’t that mean that Democrats are a shoo-in?

The odds are in their favor. Republicans are contending with high gas prices (thanks to Donald Trump’s war in Iran), voter discontent over the cost of living (thanks in part to Trump’s tariffs), and a vainglorious but deeply unpopular president. Democrats lead by about 6 points on the generic ballot, which measures which party voters prefer without........

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