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For more than a decade, Democrats in Congress have wondered what, if anything, would convince their Republican colleagues to drop Donald Trump. Despite private misgivings, GOP elected officials held their noses even as the president insulted veterans, bragged about assaulting women, trafficked in racism, abused his office, and tried to overturn a free and fair election. So far, their loyalty—measured purely by expediency—has been worth it. Despite his many flaws, Trump twice won his party unified control of Washington.

But if winning elections is Republicans’ excuse for forgiving Trump, losing them appears to be the line that cannot be crossed. Case in point: the 2026 midterms. As the GOP limps toward November with an unpopular, term-limited president at the helm, candidates in tough races—including several who previously supported Trump without reservation—are starting to highlight their differences with him. It’s both a sign of desperation and a strategic move that could break a Democratic wave.

Which Republicans are shying away from Trump?

As you might expect, several are in closely divided states where moderation and independence can pay dividends. One is former Rep. Mike Rogers, who’s running for Senate in Michigan and blames Trump’s Iran war for squeezing voters’ pocketbooks. “The war with Iran needs to end, and end quickly,” he said yesterday. In Iowa, Rep. Ashley Hinson has called for an immediate end to the war and avoided campaigning with Vice President J.D. Vance. And last week, two other vulnerable Iowans, Reps. Zach Nunn and Mariannette Miller-Meeks, joined the handful of House Republicans who have voted to halt the fighting.

So are Republicans mostly jumping ship over Iran?

Not exclusively. Rep. Tom Tiffany, who’s running for Wisconsin governor,........

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